Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 33·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.132.99safe0.89–2.820.28–1.991.16–4.81safer0.64–3.070.05–2.220.68–5.29
Shots on target
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.954.1810.13safe4.08–7.812.44–5.926.52–13.73safer3.59–8.301.97–6.395.57–14.69
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction17.0811.2828.36safe13.16–21.017.72–14.8420.88–35.85safer12.07–22.106.76–15.8018.83–37.90
Shots in box
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction10.486.9017.38safe7.53–13.424.22–9.5811.75–23.00safer6.70–14.253.48–10.3210.19–24.57
Blocked shots
65%
13%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.302.757.04safe2.41–6.181.10–4.403.51–10.58safer1.87–6.720.60–4.892.47–11.61
Corners
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.983.659.63safe3.76–8.191.65–5.655.41–13.84safer3.19–8.761.12–6.184.31–14.95
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction53.5445.59safe46.75–60.3338.80–52.37safer45.08–62.0037.13–54.04
Passes
68%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction496439935safe429–564372–505801–1069safer411–582355–523766–1104
Pass accuracy %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction79.3278.30safe75.29–83.3573.97–82.62safer74.00–84.6472.66–83.93
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0612.8325.89safe10.23–15.909.88–15.7720.11–31.68safer9.47–16.669.14–16.5218.61–33.18
Offsides
43%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.272.79safe0.35–2.670.18–2.370.53–5.04safer0.05–2.970.00–2.660.00–5.63
Yellow cards
34%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.202.574.77safe1.15–3.251.44–3.702.59–6.95safer0.89–3.521.15–3.992.04–7.51
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.140.23safe0.00–0.250.00–0.330.00–0.58safer0.00–0.400.00–0.460.00–0.86
GK saves
28%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.743.666.40safe1.30–4.172.10–5.223.41–9.39safer0.91–4.561.68–5.642.59–10.20
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.85 0.89–2.82 0.64–3.07 | 1.13 0.28–1.99 0.05–2.22 | 2.99 1.16–4.81 0.68–5.29 | 54% 23% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.95 4.08–7.81 3.59–8.30 | 4.18 2.44–5.92 1.97–6.39 | 10.13 6.52–13.73 5.57–14.69 | 65% 24% |
| Total shots | 17.08 13.16–21.01 12.07–22.10 | 11.28 7.72–14.84 6.76–15.80 | 28.36 20.88–35.85 18.83–37.90 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 10.48 7.53–13.42 6.70–14.25 | 6.90 4.22–9.58 3.48–10.32 | 17.38 11.75–23.00 10.19–24.57 | 77% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 4.30 2.41–6.18 1.87–6.72 | 2.75 1.10–4.40 0.60–4.89 | 7.04 3.51–10.58 2.47–11.61 | 65% 13% 22% |
| Corners | 5.98 3.76–8.19 3.19–8.76 | 3.65 1.65–5.65 1.12–6.18 | 9.63 5.41–13.84 4.31–14.95 | 72% 18% |
| Possession % | 53.54 46.75–60.33 45.08–62.00 | 45.59 38.80–52.37 37.13–54.04 | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 496 429–564 411–582 | 439 372–505 355–523 | 935 801–1069 766–1104 | 68% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.32 75.29–83.35 74.00–84.64 | 78.30 73.97–82.62 72.66–83.93 | — | 53% 42% |
| Fouls | 13.06 10.23–15.90 9.47–16.66 | 12.83 9.88–15.77 9.14–16.52 | 25.89 20.11–31.68 18.61–33.18 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.51 0.35–2.67 0.05–2.97 | 1.27 0.18–2.37 0.00–2.66 | 2.79 0.53–5.04 0.00–5.63 | 43% 25% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 2.20 1.15–3.25 0.89–3.52 | 2.57 1.44–3.70 1.15–3.99 | 4.77 2.59–6.95 2.04–7.51 | 34% 19% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.74 1.30–4.17 0.91–4.56 | 3.66 2.10–5.22 1.68–5.64 | 6.40 3.41–9.39 2.59–10.20 | 28% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.