Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 34·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 34·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.262.61safe0.39–2.320.40–2.110.79–4.43safer0.14–2.570.17–2.340.31–4.91
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.914.139.03safe3.05–6.772.38–5.875.43–12.64safer2.56–7.261.92–6.334.47–13.60
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2912.8428.13safe11.37–19.229.28–16.4020.65–35.62safer10.28–20.318.32–17.3618.60–37.67
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction9.477.3316.80safe6.53–12.414.65–10.0111.18–22.43safer5.70–13.243.92–10.759.61–24.00
Blocked shots
52%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.183.507.68safe2.30–6.071.85–5.154.15–11.22safer1.76–6.611.36–5.653.11–12.25
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.534.6210.14safe3.31–7.742.62–6.625.93–14.36safer2.74–8.312.08–7.154.82–15.46
Possession %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction47.1253.93safe40.33–53.9147.15–60.72safer38.66–55.5845.47–62.39
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction379441820safe311–446375–508686–954safer293–464357–525651–990
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction67.8073.17safe63.77–71.8368.85–77.50safer62.48–73.1367.54–78.81
Fouls
50%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0513.6027.65safe11.22–16.8910.66–16.5521.87–33.44safer10.46–17.659.91–17.2920.37–34.94
Offsides
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.422.89safe0.31–2.630.33–2.510.64–5.14safer0.01–2.930.04–2.800.05–5.73
Yellow cards
42%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.974.09safe1.06–3.160.85–3.101.91–6.26safer0.80–3.430.55–3.391.35–6.82
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.140.25safe0.00–0.270.00–0.320.00–0.59safer0.00–0.420.00–0.460.00–0.88
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.783.416.19safe1.34–4.221.86–4.973.20–9.19safer0.96–4.601.43–5.392.39–10.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.39–2.32 0.14–2.57 | 1.26 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.34 | 2.61 0.79–4.43 0.31–4.91 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.91 3.05–6.77 2.56–7.26 | 4.13 2.38–5.87 1.92–6.33 | 9.03 5.43–12.64 4.47–13.60 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 15.29 11.37–19.22 10.28–20.31 | 12.84 9.28–16.40 8.32–17.36 | 28.13 20.65–35.62 18.60–37.67 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 9.47 6.53–12.41 5.70–13.24 | 7.33 4.65–10.01 3.92–10.75 | 16.80 11.18–22.43 9.61–24.00 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.18 2.30–6.07 1.76–6.61 | 3.50 1.85–5.15 1.36–5.65 | 7.68 4.15–11.22 3.11–12.25 | 52% 14% 33% |
| Corners | 5.53 3.31–7.74 2.74–8.31 | 4.62 2.62–6.62 2.08–7.15 | 10.14 5.93–14.36 4.82–15.46 | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 47.12 40.33–53.91 38.66–55.58 | 53.93 47.15–60.72 45.47–62.39 | — | 32% 63% |
| Passes | 379 311–446 293–464 | 441 375–508 357–525 | 820 686–954 651–990 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.80 63.77–71.83 62.48–73.13 | 73.17 68.85–77.50 67.54–78.81 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 14.05 11.22–16.89 10.46–17.65 | 13.60 10.66–16.55 9.91–17.29 | 27.65 21.87–33.44 20.37–34.94 | 50% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.47 0.31–2.63 0.01–2.93 | 1.42 0.33–2.51 0.04–2.80 | 2.89 0.64–5.14 0.05–5.73 | 39% 25% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.11 1.06–3.16 0.80–3.43 | 1.97 0.85–3.10 0.55–3.39 | 4.09 1.91–6.26 1.35–6.82 | 42% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.25 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.34–4.22 0.96–4.60 | 3.41 1.86–4.97 1.43–5.39 | 6.19 3.20–9.19 2.39–10.00 | 32% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.