Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 34·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 34·Predicted match statistics
Goals
58%
24%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction1.690.842.52safe0.72–2.650.00–1.690.70–4.34safer0.47–2.900.00–1.920.22–4.82
Shots on target
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.472.978.45safe3.61–7.341.23–4.724.84–12.05safer3.12–7.830.77–5.183.89–13.01
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction15.859.2725.12safe11.93–19.785.71–12.8417.64–32.61safer10.84–20.874.75–13.7915.59–34.66
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction9.905.6915.60safe6.96–12.853.01–8.379.97–21.22safer6.13–13.672.28–9.118.41–22.79
Blocked shots
60%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.912.726.63safe2.03–5.791.07–4.373.10–10.17safer1.49–6.340.58–4.872.06–11.20
Corners
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.733.459.18safe3.51–7.941.45–5.454.97–13.39safer2.94–8.510.92–5.993.86–14.50
Possession %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction53.4146.21safe46.62–60.2039.42–52.99safer44.95–61.8737.75–54.67
Passes
78%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction521428949safe453–588362–495815–1083safer435–606344–512780–1118
Pass accuracy %
51%
43%
homeawayprediction75.0974.32safe71.06–79.1270.00–78.65safer69.77–80.4168.69–79.95
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7811.0522.83safe8.94–14.628.11–14.0017.05–28.62safer8.19–15.377.36–14.7515.55–30.12
Offsides
50%
23%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.232.99safe0.60–2.920.13–2.320.74–5.24safer0.30–3.220.00–2.610.15–5.83
Yellow cards
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.673.32safe0.60–2.690.54–2.801.14–5.50safer0.33–2.960.25–3.090.58–6.05
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
21%
15%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.173.555.72safe0.73–3.611.99–5.102.72–8.71safer0.35–3.991.56–5.531.91–9.52
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 0.72–2.65 0.47–2.90 | 0.84 0.00–1.69 0.00–1.92 | 2.52 0.70–4.34 0.22–4.82 | 58% 24% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.47 3.61–7.34 3.12–7.83 | 2.97 1.23–4.72 0.77–5.18 | 8.45 4.84–12.05 3.89–13.01 | 76% 15% |
| Total shots | 15.85 11.93–19.78 10.84–20.87 | 9.27 5.71–12.84 4.75–13.79 | 25.12 17.64–32.61 15.59–34.66 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 9.90 6.96–12.85 6.13–13.67 | 5.69 3.01–8.37 2.28–9.11 | 15.60 9.97–21.22 8.41–22.79 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 3.91 2.03–5.79 1.49–6.34 | 2.72 1.07–4.37 0.58–4.87 | 6.63 3.10–10.17 2.06–11.20 | 60% 14% 25% |
| Corners | 5.73 3.51–7.94 2.94–8.51 | 3.45 1.45–5.45 0.92–5.99 | 9.18 4.97–13.39 3.86–14.50 | 72% 18% |
| Possession % | 53.41 46.62–60.20 44.95–61.87 | 46.21 39.42–52.99 37.75–54.67 | — | 64% 31% |
| Passes | 521 453–588 435–606 | 428 362–495 344–512 | 949 815–1083 780–1118 | 78% 22% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.09 71.06–79.12 69.77–80.41 | 74.32 70.00–78.65 68.69–79.95 | — | 51% 43% |
| Fouls | 11.78 8.94–14.62 8.19–15.37 | 11.05 8.11–14.00 7.36–14.75 | 22.83 17.05–28.62 15.55–30.12 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.60–2.92 0.30–3.22 | 1.23 0.13–2.32 0.00–2.61 | 2.99 0.74–5.24 0.15–5.83 | 50% 23% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.60–2.69 0.33–2.96 | 1.67 0.54–2.80 0.25–3.09 | 3.32 1.14–5.50 0.58–6.05 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.17 0.73–3.61 0.35–3.99 | 3.55 1.99–5.10 1.56–5.53 | 5.72 2.72–8.71 1.91–9.52 | 21% 15% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.