Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 34·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 34·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
28%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.042.31safe0.31–2.240.18–1.890.49–4.13safer0.05–2.490.00–2.120.01–4.61
Shots on target
52%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.563.938.49safe2.69–6.422.19–5.684.88–12.09safer2.20–6.911.72–6.143.93–13.05
Total shots
70%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3911.1825.58safe10.47–18.327.62–14.7418.09–33.06safer9.38–19.416.66–15.7016.04–35.11
Shots in box
61%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction8.286.6614.93safe5.34–11.223.98–9.349.31–20.56safer4.51–12.053.24–10.077.74–22.12
Blocked shots
58%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.562.566.13safe1.68–5.450.91–4.222.59–9.66safer1.14–5.990.42–4.711.56–10.70
Corners
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.904.509.40safe2.69–7.122.50–6.505.19–13.61safer2.12–7.691.96–7.034.08–14.72
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.5750.63safe42.78–56.3643.85–57.42safer41.11–58.0342.18–59.09
Passes
45%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction408422830safe341–476355–488697–964safer323–494338–506661–1000
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction69.9473.70safe65.91–73.9769.37–78.02safer64.62–75.2668.06–79.33
Fouls
45%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9914.2128.20safe11.15–16.8311.27–17.1622.42–33.98safer10.39–17.5810.52–17.9120.91–35.49
Offsides
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.913.29safe0.22–2.540.82–3.001.03–5.54safer0.00–2.840.53–3.290.44–6.13
Yellow cards
41%
19%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.332.274.60safe1.28–3.371.14–3.402.42–6.78safer1.01–3.640.85–3.691.86–7.33
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.140.26safe0.00–0.280.00–0.330.00–0.61safer0.00–0.430.00–0.460.00–0.89
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.533.275.81safe1.10–3.971.72–4.832.82–8.80safer0.71–4.361.29–5.252.00–9.61
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.31–2.24 0.05–2.49 | 1.04 0.18–1.89 0.00–2.12 | 2.31 0.49–4.13 0.01–4.61 | 42% 28% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.56 2.69–6.42 2.20–6.91 | 3.93 2.19–5.68 1.72–6.14 | 8.49 4.88–12.09 3.93–13.05 | 52% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 14.39 10.47–18.32 9.38–19.41 | 11.18 7.62–14.74 6.66–15.70 | 25.58 18.09–33.06 16.04–35.11 | 70% 23% |
| Shots in box | 8.28 5.34–11.22 4.51–12.05 | 6.66 3.98–9.34 3.24–10.07 | 14.93 9.31–20.56 7.74–22.12 | 61% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 3.56 1.68–5.45 1.14–5.99 | 2.56 0.91–4.22 0.42–4.71 | 6.13 2.59–9.66 1.56–10.70 | 58% 15% 27% |
| Corners | 4.90 2.69–7.12 2.12–7.69 | 4.50 2.50–6.50 1.96–7.03 | 9.40 5.19–13.61 4.08–14.72 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Possession % | 49.57 42.78–56.36 41.11–58.03 | 50.63 43.85–57.42 42.18–59.09 | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 408 341–476 323–494 | 422 355–488 338–506 | 830 697–964 661–1000 | 45% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.94 65.91–73.97 64.62–75.26 | 73.70 69.37–78.02 68.06–79.33 | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 13.99 11.15–16.83 10.39–17.58 | 14.21 11.27–17.16 10.52–17.91 | 28.20 22.42–33.98 20.91–35.49 | 45% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.38 0.22–2.54 0.00–2.84 | 1.91 0.82–3.00 0.53–3.29 | 3.29 1.03–5.54 0.44–6.13 | 28% 22% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 2.33 1.28–3.37 1.01–3.64 | 2.27 1.14–3.40 0.85–3.69 | 4.60 2.42–6.78 1.86–7.33 | 41% 19% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.53 1.10–3.97 0.71–4.36 | 3.27 1.72–4.83 1.29–5.25 | 5.81 2.82–8.80 2.00–9.61 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+