Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 34·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 34·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.142.59safe0.49–2.430.28–1.990.77–4.42safer0.24–2.680.05–2.220.29–4.90
Shots on target
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.933.678.60safe3.07–6.791.93–5.415.00–12.21safer2.58–7.281.46–5.884.04–13.16
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8511.2326.08safe10.92–18.777.67–14.7918.59–33.56safer9.83–19.866.71–15.7516.54–35.61
Shots in box
67%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction9.016.7815.79safe6.07–11.954.10–9.4610.16–21.41safer5.24–12.783.36–10.208.60–22.98
Blocked shots
53%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.863.167.02safe1.98–5.741.51–4.823.49–10.56safer1.44–6.291.02–5.312.45–11.60
Corners
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.113.919.02safe2.90–7.321.91–5.914.81–13.23safer2.32–7.901.38–6.453.70–14.34
Possession %
48%
48%
homeawayprediction49.7149.66safe42.92–56.5042.87–56.44safer41.25–58.1741.20–58.11
Passes
51%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction426422849safe359–494356–489715–982safer341–512338–506679–1018
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction72.2073.39safe68.17–76.2369.06–77.71safer66.87–77.5267.75–79.02
Fouls
68%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0712.1827.25safe12.23–17.919.24–15.1321.47–33.03safer11.47–18.668.49–15.8819.96–34.54
Offsides
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.743.26safe0.35–2.670.65–2.841.00–5.51safer0.05–2.970.36–3.120.41–6.10
Yellow cards
50%
19%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.461.964.41safe1.41–3.510.83–3.092.24–6.59safer1.14–3.770.54–3.381.68–7.15
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.130.26safe0.00–0.290.00–0.310.00–0.60safer0.00–0.440.00–0.450.00–0.89
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.513.285.79safe1.08–3.951.72–4.832.80–8.78safer0.69–4.341.30–5.261.98–9.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.49–2.43 0.24–2.68 | 1.14 0.28–1.99 0.05–2.22 | 2.59 0.77–4.42 0.29–4.90 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.93 3.07–6.79 2.58–7.28 | 3.67 1.93–5.41 1.46–5.88 | 8.60 5.00–12.21 4.04–13.16 | 60% 27% |
| Total shots | 14.85 10.92–18.77 9.83–19.86 | 11.23 7.67–14.79 6.71–15.75 | 26.08 18.59–33.56 16.54–35.61 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 9.01 6.07–11.95 5.24–12.78 | 6.78 4.10–9.46 3.36–10.20 | 15.79 10.16–21.41 8.60–22.98 | 67% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 1.98–5.74 1.44–6.29 | 3.16 1.51–4.82 1.02–5.31 | 7.02 3.49–10.56 2.45–11.60 | 53% 15% 32% |
| Corners | 5.11 2.90–7.32 2.32–7.90 | 3.91 1.91–5.91 1.38–6.45 | 9.02 4.81–13.23 3.70–14.34 | 59% 28% |
| Possession % | 49.71 42.92–56.50 41.25–58.17 | 49.66 42.87–56.44 41.20–58.11 | — | 48% 48% |
| Passes | 426 359–494 341–512 | 422 356–489 338–506 | 849 715–982 679–1018 | 51% 49% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.20 68.17–76.23 66.87–77.52 | 73.39 69.06–77.71 67.75–79.02 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 15.07 12.23–17.91 11.47–18.66 | 12.18 9.24–15.13 8.49–15.88 | 27.25 21.47–33.03 19.96–34.54 | 68% 26% |
| Offsides | 1.51 0.35–2.67 0.05–2.97 | 1.74 0.65–2.84 0.36–3.12 | 3.26 1.00–5.51 0.41–6.10 | 34% 23% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.46 1.41–3.51 1.14–3.77 | 1.96 0.83–3.09 0.54–3.38 | 4.41 2.24–6.59 1.68–7.15 | 50% 19% 31% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.26 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.89 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.51 1.08–3.95 0.69–4.34 | 3.28 1.72–4.83 1.30–5.26 | 5.79 2.80–8.78 1.98–9.59 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.