Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
23%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction0.981.782.76safe0.01–1.950.93–2.640.94–4.59safer0.00–2.200.70–2.870.46–5.07
Shots on target
20%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction3.665.769.43safe1.80–5.534.02–7.515.82–13.03safer1.31–6.023.56–7.974.87–13.99
Total shots
17%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8615.1426.00safe6.94–14.7911.57–18.7018.51–33.49safer5.85–15.8810.62–19.6616.46–35.54
Shots in box
18%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction6.9110.1217.03safe3.97–9.857.44–12.8011.41–22.65safer3.14–10.686.71–13.549.84–24.22
Blocked shots
24%
14%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.704.026.72safe0.82–4.582.37–5.673.19–10.26safer0.27–5.131.88–6.172.15–11.29
Corners
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.975.519.48safe1.75–6.183.51–7.515.27–13.69safer1.18–6.762.98–8.044.16–14.80
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction40.7959.45safe34.00–47.5852.66–66.23safer32.33–49.2550.99–67.91
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction347511857safe279–414444–577723–991safer261–432427–594688–1026
Pass accuracy %
84%
homeawayprediction75.5183.83safe71.48–79.5479.51–88.16safer70.19–80.8378.20–89.47
Fouls
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4411.5925.03safe10.60–16.288.64–14.5319.24–30.81safer9.84–17.037.89–15.2817.74–32.31
Offsides
40%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.823.67safe0.68–3.010.73–2.911.41–5.92safer0.38–3.310.44–3.200.82–6.51
Yellow cards
49%
18%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.622.174.79safe1.57–3.671.04–3.302.62–6.97safer1.31–3.940.75–3.592.06–7.53
Red cards
16%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction0.190.120.32safe0.03–0.360.00–0.310.00–0.67safer0.00–0.510.00–0.440.00–0.95
GK saves
65%
14%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.992.496.49safe2.56–5.430.94–4.053.50–9.48safer2.17–5.820.51–4.482.68–10.29
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.98 0.01–1.95 0.00–2.20 | 1.78 0.93–2.64 0.70–2.87 | 2.76 0.94–4.59 0.46–5.07 | 21% 23% 56% |
| Shots on target | 3.66 1.80–5.53 1.31–6.02 | 5.76 4.02–7.51 3.56–7.97 | 9.43 5.82–13.03 4.87–13.99 | 20% 70% |
| Total shots | 10.86 6.94–14.79 5.85–15.88 | 15.14 11.57–18.70 10.62–19.66 | 26.00 18.51–33.49 16.46–35.54 | 17% 77% |
| Shots in box | 6.91 3.97–9.85 3.14–10.68 | 10.12 7.44–12.80 6.71–13.54 | 17.03 11.41–22.65 9.84–24.22 | 18% 75% |
| Blocked shots | 2.70 0.82–4.58 0.27–5.13 | 4.02 2.37–5.67 1.88–6.17 | 6.72 3.19–10.26 2.15–11.29 | 24% 14% 62% |
| Corners | 3.97 1.75–6.18 1.18–6.76 | 5.51 3.51–7.51 2.98–8.04 | 9.48 5.27–13.69 4.16–14.80 | 25% 63% |
| Possession % | 40.79 34.00–47.58 32.33–49.25 | 59.45 52.66–66.23 50.99–67.91 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 347 279–414 261–432 | 511 444–577 427–594 | 857 723–991 688–1026 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.51 71.48–79.54 70.19–80.83 | 83.83 79.51–88.16 78.20–89.47 | — | 84% |
| Fouls | 13.44 10.60–16.28 9.84–17.03 | 11.59 8.64–14.53 7.89–15.28 | 25.03 19.24–30.81 17.74–32.31 | 61% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.85 0.68–3.01 0.38–3.31 | 1.82 0.73–2.91 0.44–3.20 | 3.67 1.41–5.92 0.82–6.51 | 40% 22% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.62 1.57–3.67 1.31–3.94 | 2.17 1.04–3.30 0.75–3.59 | 4.79 2.62–6.97 2.06–7.53 | 49% 18% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.19 0.03–0.36 0.00–0.51 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.32 0.00–0.67 0.00–0.95 | 16% 74% |
| GK saves | 3.99 2.56–5.43 2.17–5.82 | 2.49 0.94–4.05 0.51–4.48 | 6.49 3.50–9.48 2.68–10.29 | 65% 14% 21% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.