Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
24%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.022.76safe0.77–2.710.16–1.870.93–4.58safer0.52–2.960.00–2.100.45–5.06
Shots on target
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.293.739.03safe3.43–7.151.99–5.485.42–12.63safer2.94–7.641.53–5.944.47–13.59
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2510.5125.77safe11.33–19.186.95–14.0818.28–33.26safer10.24–20.275.99–15.0416.23–35.31
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction10.175.9816.14safe7.22–13.113.30–8.6610.52–21.77safer6.39–13.942.56–9.408.95–23.33
Blocked shots
60%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.752.576.32safe1.87–5.630.92–4.222.78–9.86safer1.33–6.180.42–4.711.75–10.89
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.623.849.47safe3.41–7.841.84–5.845.25–13.68safer2.84–8.411.31–6.374.14–14.79
Possession %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction57.3143.31safe50.52–64.1036.52–50.09safer48.85–65.7734.85–51.76
Passes
81%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction466360826safe399–534294–427693–960safer381–552276–444657–996
Pass accuracy %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction84.7280.69safe80.69–88.7576.37–85.01safer79.40–90.0475.06–86.32
Fouls
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0112.5827.59safe12.17–17.849.63–15.5221.80–33.37safer11.41–18.608.88–16.2720.30–34.87
Offsides
60%
19%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.341.353.69safe1.18–3.500.26–2.441.44–5.95safer0.88–3.800.00–2.730.85–6.54
Yellow cards
33%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.274.14safe0.82–2.921.14–3.401.97–6.32safer0.56–3.190.85–3.691.41–6.88
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.110.25safe0.00–0.300.00–0.300.00–0.60safer0.00–0.450.00–0.430.00–0.88
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.553.435.99safe1.12–3.991.88–4.992.99–8.98safer0.73–4.381.45–5.412.18–9.79
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.74 0.77–2.71 0.52–2.96 | 1.02 0.16–1.87 0.00–2.10 | 2.76 0.93–4.58 0.45–5.06 | 54% 24% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.29 3.43–7.15 2.94–7.64 | 3.73 1.99–5.48 1.53–5.94 | 9.03 5.42–12.63 4.47–13.59 | 64% 24% |
| Total shots | 15.25 11.33–19.18 10.24–20.27 | 10.51 6.95–14.08 5.99–15.04 | 25.77 18.28–33.26 16.23–35.31 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 10.17 7.22–13.11 6.39–13.94 | 5.98 3.30–8.66 2.56–9.40 | 16.14 10.52–21.77 8.95–23.33 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 3.75 1.87–5.63 1.33–6.18 | 2.57 0.92–4.22 0.42–4.71 | 6.32 2.78–9.86 1.75–10.89 | 60% 15% 25% |
| Corners | 5.62 3.41–7.84 2.84–8.41 | 3.84 1.84–5.84 1.31–6.37 | 9.47 5.25–13.68 4.14–14.79 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 57.31 50.52–64.10 48.85–65.77 | 43.31 36.52–50.09 34.85–51.76 | — | 78% 19% |
| Passes | 466 399–534 381–552 | 360 294–427 276–444 | 826 693–960 657–996 | 81% 19% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.72 80.69–88.75 79.40–90.04 | 80.69 76.37–85.01 75.06–86.32 | — | 68% 28% |
| Fouls | 15.01 12.17–17.84 11.41–18.60 | 12.58 9.63–15.52 8.88–16.27 | 27.59 21.80–33.37 20.30–34.87 | 64% 29% |
| Offsides | 2.34 1.18–3.50 0.88–3.80 | 1.35 0.26–2.44 0.00–2.73 | 3.69 1.44–5.95 0.85–6.54 | 60% 19% 21% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.82–2.92 0.56–3.19 | 2.27 1.14–3.40 0.85–3.69 | 4.14 1.97–6.32 1.41–6.88 | 33% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.55 1.12–3.99 0.73–4.38 | 3.43 1.88–4.99 1.45–5.41 | 5.99 2.99–8.98 2.18–9.79 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.