Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.102.53safe0.47–2.400.24–1.950.71–4.36safer0.22–2.650.02–2.180.23–4.84
Shots on target
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.883.928.80safe3.02–6.742.18–5.665.20–12.41safer2.53–7.231.71–6.134.24–13.36
Total shots
69%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0011.9326.92safe11.07–18.928.37–15.4919.44–34.41safer9.98–20.017.41–16.4517.39–36.46
Shots in box
57%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction9.127.9217.05safe6.18–12.075.24–10.6111.43–22.67safer5.35–12.904.51–11.349.86–24.24
Blocked shots
57%
14%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.203.247.44safe2.32–6.081.59–4.893.91–10.98safer1.78–6.631.10–5.392.87–12.01
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.364.259.61safe3.15–7.572.25–6.255.39–13.82safer2.57–8.151.71–6.784.29–14.93
Possession %
63%
33%
homeawayprediction53.6847.04safe46.89–60.4740.25–53.82safer45.22–62.1438.58–55.49
Passes
66%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction439388827safe372–506322–455694–961safer354–524304–472658–997
Pass accuracy %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction84.1280.45safe80.09–88.1576.13–84.78safer78.80–89.4474.82–86.09
Fouls
31%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2114.3226.53safe9.38–15.0511.38–17.2620.75–32.32safer8.62–15.8110.63–18.0119.25–33.82
Offsides
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.353.03safe0.52–2.840.26–2.450.78–5.28safer0.21–3.140.00–2.740.19–5.87
Yellow cards
36%
19%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.344.43safe1.04–3.131.22–3.472.25–6.61safer0.77–3.400.92–3.761.69–7.16
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.150.26safe0.00–0.270.00–0.330.00–0.60safer0.00–0.420.00–0.470.00–0.89
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.743.356.09safe1.30–4.181.80–4.913.10–9.09safer0.92–4.561.37–5.332.29–9.90
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.47–2.40 0.22–2.65 | 1.10 0.24–1.95 0.02–2.18 | 2.53 0.71–4.36 0.23–4.84 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.88 3.02–6.74 2.53–7.23 | 3.92 2.18–5.66 1.71–6.13 | 8.80 5.20–12.41 4.24–13.36 | 56% 31% |
| Total shots | 15.00 11.07–18.92 9.98–20.01 | 11.93 8.37–15.49 7.41–16.45 | 26.92 19.44–34.41 17.39–36.46 | 69% 25% |
| Shots in box | 9.12 6.18–12.07 5.35–12.90 | 7.92 5.24–10.61 4.51–11.34 | 17.05 11.43–22.67 9.86–24.24 | 57% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 4.20 2.32–6.08 1.78–6.63 | 3.24 1.59–4.89 1.10–5.39 | 7.44 3.91–10.98 2.87–12.01 | 57% 14% 29% |
| Corners | 5.36 3.15–7.57 2.57–8.15 | 4.25 2.25–6.25 1.71–6.78 | 9.61 5.39–13.82 4.29–14.93 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 53.68 46.89–60.47 45.22–62.14 | 47.04 40.25–53.82 38.58–55.49 | — | 63% 33% |
| Passes | 439 372–506 354–524 | 388 322–455 304–472 | 827 694–961 658–997 | 66% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.12 80.09–88.15 78.80–89.44 | 80.45 76.13–84.78 74.82–86.09 | — | 66% 30% |
| Fouls | 12.21 9.38–15.05 8.62–15.81 | 14.32 11.38–17.26 10.63–18.01 | 26.53 20.75–32.32 19.25–33.82 | 31% 62% |
| Offsides | 1.68 0.52–2.84 0.21–3.14 | 1.35 0.26–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 3.03 0.78–5.28 0.19–5.87 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.04–3.13 0.77–3.40 | 2.34 1.22–3.47 0.92–3.76 | 4.43 2.25–6.61 1.69–7.16 | 36% 19% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.26 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.89 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.74 1.30–4.18 0.92–4.56 | 3.35 1.80–4.91 1.37–5.33 | 6.09 3.10–9.09 2.29–9.90 | 32% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.