Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
26%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.462.71safe0.29–2.220.60–2.310.89–4.53safer0.03–2.470.37–2.540.41–5.01
Shots on target
32%
13%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.834.668.49safe1.96–5.692.92–6.404.88–12.09safer1.47–6.182.45–6.873.93–13.05
Total shots
44%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7513.0725.82safe8.82–16.679.51–16.6418.33–33.31safer7.73–17.778.55–17.5916.28–35.36
Shots in box
47%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction7.767.5615.32safe4.82–10.704.88–10.249.69–20.94safer3.99–11.534.14–10.988.13–22.51
Blocked shots
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.093.226.31safe1.21–4.971.56–4.872.77–9.84safer0.66–5.511.07–5.361.74–10.88
Corners
40%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.604.909.50safe2.39–6.812.90–6.905.29–13.72safer1.81–7.392.37–7.434.18–14.82
Possession %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction43.4256.84safe36.63–50.2150.05–63.62safer34.96–51.8848.38–65.30
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction373495868safe305–440429–562734–1002safer287–458411–579699–1037
Pass accuracy %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction79.1385.35safe75.10–83.1681.03–89.68safer73.81–84.4579.72–90.98
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5413.0225.56safe9.70–15.3810.07–15.9619.77–31.34safer8.95–16.139.32–16.7118.27–32.84
Offsides
42%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.633.42safe0.63–2.950.53–2.721.17–5.67safer0.33–3.250.25–3.010.58–6.26
Yellow cards
36%
19%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.252.504.75safe1.20–3.301.37–3.632.57–6.93safer0.93–3.561.08–3.922.01–7.49
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.912.695.60safe1.48–4.351.13–4.252.61–8.60safer1.09–4.740.71–4.671.80–9.41
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.29–2.22 0.03–2.47 | 1.46 0.60–2.31 0.37–2.54 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.41–5.01 | 33% 26% 42% |
| Shots on target | 3.83 1.96–5.69 1.47–6.18 | 4.66 2.92–6.40 2.45–6.87 | 8.49 4.88–12.09 3.93–13.05 | 32% 13% 54% |
| Total shots | 12.75 8.82–16.67 7.73–17.77 | 13.07 9.51–16.64 8.55–17.59 | 25.82 18.33–33.31 16.28–35.36 | 44% 49% |
| Shots in box | 7.76 4.82–10.70 3.99–11.53 | 7.56 4.88–10.24 4.14–10.98 | 15.32 9.69–20.94 8.13–22.51 | 47% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.09 1.21–4.97 0.66–5.51 | 3.22 1.56–4.87 1.07–5.36 | 6.31 2.77–9.84 1.74–10.88 | 40% 16% 44% |
| Corners | 4.60 2.39–6.81 1.81–7.39 | 4.90 2.90–6.90 2.37–7.43 | 9.50 5.29–13.72 4.18–14.82 | 40% 13% 47% |
| Possession % | 43.42 36.63–50.21 34.96–51.88 | 56.84 50.05–63.62 48.38–65.30 | — | 20% 77% |
| Passes | 373 305–440 287–458 | 495 429–562 411–579 | 868 734–1002 699–1037 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.13 75.10–83.16 73.81–84.45 | 85.35 81.03–89.68 79.72–90.98 | — | 19% 77% |
| Fouls | 12.54 9.70–15.38 8.95–16.13 | 13.02 10.07–15.96 9.32–16.71 | 25.56 19.77–31.34 18.27–32.84 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.79 0.63–2.95 0.33–3.25 | 1.63 0.53–2.72 0.25–3.01 | 3.42 1.17–5.67 0.58–6.26 | 42% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.25 1.20–3.30 0.93–3.56 | 2.50 1.37–3.63 1.08–3.92 | 4.75 2.57–6.93 2.01–7.49 | 36% 19% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.91 1.48–4.35 1.09–4.74 | 2.69 1.13–4.25 0.71–4.67 | 5.60 2.61–8.60 1.80–9.41 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+