Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
22%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.913.23safe0.35–2.291.05–2.761.40–5.05safer0.10–2.540.82–2.990.92–5.53
Shots on target
32%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction4.525.5010.02safe2.66–6.393.76–7.246.42–13.63safer2.17–6.883.29–7.715.46–14.58
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3513.4025.75safe8.42–16.279.84–16.9718.26–33.24safer7.33–17.368.88–17.9316.21–35.29
Shots in box
28%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction7.849.7317.57safe4.90–10.787.05–12.4111.95–23.20safer4.07–11.616.31–13.1510.38–24.76
Blocked shots
35%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.173.636.80safe1.28–5.051.98–5.283.26–10.33safer0.74–5.591.48–5.772.23–11.37
Corners
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.485.149.62safe2.27–6.703.14–7.145.41–13.83safer1.70–7.272.60–7.674.30–14.94
Possession %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction48.7852.04safe41.99–55.5745.26–58.83safer40.32–57.2443.59–60.50
Passes
37%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction422460883safe355–490394–527749–1016safer337–508376–544713–1052
Pass accuracy %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction81.1082.15safe77.07–85.1377.83–86.48safer75.78–86.4276.52–87.79
Fouls
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0212.0026.02safe11.19–16.869.06–14.9420.24–31.81safer10.43–17.628.31–15.6918.74–33.31
Offsides
37%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.244.32safe0.93–3.251.14–3.332.07–6.58safer0.62–3.550.85–3.621.48–7.16
Yellow cards
50%
19%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.381.874.25safe1.33–3.430.74–3.002.07–6.43safer1.07–3.700.45–3.291.52–6.99
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.090.23safe0.00–0.300.00–0.280.00–0.58safer0.00–0.450.00–0.410.00–0.86
GK saves
47%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.453.116.56safe2.01–4.891.55–4.673.57–9.55safer1.63–5.271.13–5.092.76–10.36
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.91 1.05–2.76 0.82–2.99 | 3.23 1.40–5.05 0.92–5.53 | 26% 22% 51% |
| Shots on target | 4.52 2.66–6.39 2.17–6.88 | 5.50 3.76–7.24 3.29–7.71 | 10.02 6.42–13.63 5.46–14.58 | 32% 56% |
| Total shots | 12.35 8.42–16.27 7.33–17.36 | 13.40 9.84–16.97 8.88–17.93 | 25.75 18.26–33.24 16.21–35.29 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 7.84 4.90–10.78 4.07–11.61 | 9.73 7.05–12.41 6.31–13.15 | 17.57 11.95–23.20 10.38–24.76 | 28% 63% |
| Blocked shots | 3.17 1.28–5.05 0.74–5.59 | 3.63 1.98–5.28 1.48–5.77 | 6.80 3.26–10.33 2.23–11.37 | 35% 15% 49% |
| Corners | 4.48 2.27–6.70 1.70–7.27 | 5.14 3.14–7.14 2.60–7.67 | 9.62 5.41–13.83 4.30–14.94 | 35% 52% |
| Possession % | 48.78 41.99–55.57 40.32–57.24 | 52.04 45.26–58.83 43.59–60.50 | — | 40% 55% |
| Passes | 422 355–490 337–508 | 460 394–527 376–544 | 883 749–1016 713–1052 | 37% 62% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.10 77.07–85.13 75.78–86.42 | 82.15 77.83–86.48 76.52–87.79 | — | 42% 53% |
| Fouls | 14.02 11.19–16.86 10.43–17.62 | 12.00 9.06–14.94 8.31–15.69 | 26.02 20.24–31.81 18.74–33.31 | 62% 31% |
| Offsides | 2.09 0.93–3.25 0.62–3.55 | 2.24 1.14–3.33 0.85–3.62 | 4.32 2.07–6.58 1.48–7.16 | 37% 20% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.38 1.33–3.43 1.07–3.70 | 1.87 0.74–3.00 0.45–3.29 | 4.25 2.07–6.43 1.52–6.99 | 50% 19% 31% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.45 2.01–4.89 1.63–5.27 | 3.11 1.55–4.67 1.13–5.09 | 6.56 3.57–9.55 2.76–10.36 | 47% 16% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.