Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
26%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.232.61safe0.41–2.340.38–2.090.79–4.43safer0.16–2.600.15–2.320.31–4.91
Shots on target
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.393.728.11safe2.52–6.251.98–5.464.50–11.71safer2.03–6.741.51–5.933.55–12.67
Total shots
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0611.9627.02safe11.13–18.988.40–15.5219.53–34.51safer10.04–20.077.44–16.4817.48–36.56
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction8.896.9015.79safe5.95–11.834.22–9.5810.17–21.41safer5.12–12.663.48–10.328.60–22.98
Blocked shots
49%
15%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.743.287.02safe1.86–5.621.63–4.943.49–10.56safer1.31–6.161.14–5.432.45–11.59
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.104.529.62safe2.88–7.312.52–6.525.40–13.83safer2.31–7.881.99–7.054.30–14.94
Possession %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction48.4551.26safe41.66–55.2444.47–58.04safer39.99–56.9142.80–59.72
Passes
44%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction405423827safe337–472356–489694–961safer319–490339–507658–997
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction81.4283.14safe77.39–85.4578.82–87.47safer76.10–86.7577.51–88.78
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8212.6526.48safe10.99–16.669.71–15.6020.70–32.26safer10.23–17.428.96–16.3519.19–33.77
Offsides
36%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.643.19safe0.39–2.710.55–2.730.93–5.44safer0.09–3.010.26–3.020.34–6.03
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.174.25safe1.03–3.121.04–3.302.07–6.42safer0.76–3.390.75–3.591.51–6.98
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.20safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
32%
17%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.513.095.60safe1.08–3.951.53–4.642.61–8.59safer0.69–4.341.11–5.071.80–9.40
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.41–2.34 0.16–2.60 | 1.23 0.38–2.09 0.15–2.32 | 2.61 0.79–4.43 0.31–4.91 | 40% 26% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.39 2.52–6.25 2.03–6.74 | 3.72 1.98–5.46 1.51–5.93 | 8.11 4.50–11.71 3.55–12.67 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Total shots | 15.06 11.13–18.98 10.04–20.07 | 11.96 8.40–15.52 7.44–16.48 | 27.02 19.53–34.51 17.48–36.56 | 69% 24% |
| Shots in box | 8.89 5.95–11.83 5.12–12.66 | 6.90 4.22–9.58 3.48–10.32 | 15.79 10.17–21.41 8.60–22.98 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.74 1.86–5.62 1.31–6.16 | 3.28 1.63–4.94 1.14–5.43 | 7.02 3.49–10.56 2.45–11.59 | 49% 15% 36% |
| Corners | 5.10 2.88–7.31 2.31–7.88 | 4.52 2.52–6.52 1.99–7.05 | 9.62 5.40–13.83 4.30–14.94 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 48.45 41.66–55.24 39.99–56.91 | 51.26 44.47–58.04 42.80–59.72 | — | 41% 54% |
| Passes | 405 337–472 319–490 | 423 356–489 339–507 | 827 694–961 658–997 | 44% 56% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.42 77.39–85.45 76.10–86.75 | 83.14 78.82–87.47 77.51–88.78 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 13.82 10.99–16.66 10.23–17.42 | 12.65 9.71–15.60 8.96–16.35 | 26.48 20.70–32.26 19.19–33.77 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.55 0.39–2.71 0.09–3.01 | 1.64 0.55–2.73 0.26–3.02 | 3.19 0.93–5.44 0.34–6.03 | 36% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.12 0.76–3.39 | 2.17 1.04–3.30 0.75–3.59 | 4.25 2.07–6.42 1.51–6.98 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.51 1.08–3.95 0.69–4.34 | 3.09 1.53–4.64 1.11–5.07 | 5.60 2.61–8.59 1.80–9.40 | 32% 17% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.