Predicted match statistics
Goals
22%
23%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.081.802.88safe0.11–2.040.95–2.661.06–4.70safer0.00–2.290.72–2.890.58–5.18
Shots on target
26%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.805.188.99safe1.94–5.673.44–6.935.38–12.59safer1.45–6.162.98–7.394.43–13.55
Total shots
22%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3314.7126.05safe7.41–15.2611.15–18.2718.56–33.53safer6.32–16.3510.19–19.2316.51–35.58
Shots in box
23%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction6.929.4416.36safe3.98–9.866.76–12.1210.74–21.98safer3.15–10.696.02–12.869.17–23.55
Blocked shots
26%
14%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.934.097.01safe1.04–4.812.44–5.743.48–10.55safer0.50–5.351.94–6.232.44–11.58
Corners
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.245.279.51safe2.03–6.453.27–7.275.30–13.73safer1.45–7.032.74–7.804.19–14.83
Possession %
31%
64%
homeawayprediction46.5453.78safe39.75–53.3346.99–60.56safer38.08–55.0045.32–62.24
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction425489914safe358–492422–555780–1047safer339–510405–573744–1083
Pass accuracy %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction79.8882.96safe75.85–83.9178.64–87.29safer74.56–85.2077.33–88.60
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3013.4226.72safe10.46–16.1410.47–16.3620.94–32.50safer9.71–16.899.72–17.1119.43–34.00
Offsides
53%
21%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.071.403.48safe0.91–3.230.31–2.501.22–5.73safer0.61–3.530.02–2.790.63–6.32
Yellow cards
45%
20%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.312.084.39safe1.27–3.360.95–3.212.22–6.57safer1.00–3.630.66–3.501.66–7.13
Red cards
13%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.100.26safe0.00–0.320.00–0.290.00–0.60safer0.00–0.470.00–0.420.00–0.89
GK saves
59%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.702.606.30safe2.27–5.141.04–4.153.31–9.29safer1.88–5.530.62–4.582.49–10.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.08 0.11–2.04 0.00–2.29 | 1.80 0.95–2.66 0.72–2.89 | 2.88 1.06–4.70 0.58–5.18 | 22% 23% 54% |
| Shots on target | 3.80 1.94–5.67 1.45–6.16 | 5.18 3.44–6.93 2.98–7.39 | 8.99 5.38–12.59 4.43–13.55 | 26% 61% |
| Total shots | 11.33 7.41–15.26 6.32–16.35 | 14.71 11.15–18.27 10.19–19.23 | 26.05 18.56–33.53 16.51–35.58 | 22% 71% |
| Shots in box | 6.92 3.98–9.86 3.15–10.69 | 9.44 6.76–12.12 6.02–12.86 | 16.36 10.74–21.98 9.17–23.55 | 23% 69% |
| Blocked shots | 2.93 1.04–4.81 0.50–5.35 | 4.09 2.44–5.74 1.94–6.23 | 7.01 3.48–10.55 2.44–11.58 | 26% 14% 60% |
| Corners | 4.24 2.03–6.45 1.45–7.03 | 5.27 3.27–7.27 2.74–7.80 | 9.51 5.30–13.73 4.19–14.83 | 31% 57% |
| Possession % | 46.54 39.75–53.33 38.08–55.00 | 53.78 46.99–60.56 45.32–62.24 | — | 31% 64% |
| Passes | 425 358–492 339–510 | 489 422–555 405–573 | 914 780–1047 744–1083 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.88 75.85–83.91 74.56–85.20 | 82.96 78.64–87.29 77.33–88.60 | — | 32% 63% |
| Fouls | 13.30 10.46–16.14 9.71–16.89 | 13.42 10.47–16.36 9.72–17.11 | 26.72 20.94–32.50 19.43–34.00 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 2.07 0.91–3.23 0.61–3.53 | 1.40 0.31–2.50 0.02–2.79 | 3.48 1.22–5.73 0.63–6.32 | 53% 21% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 2.31 1.27–3.36 1.00–3.63 | 2.08 0.95–3.21 0.66–3.50 | 4.39 2.22–6.57 1.66–7.13 | 45% 20% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.26 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.89 | 13% 79% |
| GK saves | 3.70 2.27–5.14 1.88–5.53 | 2.60 1.04–4.15 0.62–4.58 | 6.30 3.31–9.29 2.49–10.10 | 59% 15% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+

