Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
25%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.522.91safe0.42–2.350.67–2.381.08–4.73safer0.17–2.600.44–2.600.60–5.21
Shots on target
41%
13%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.534.699.22safe2.67–6.392.95–6.435.62–12.83safer2.18–6.882.48–6.904.66–13.78
Total shots
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6411.9725.61safe9.72–17.578.41–15.5418.13–33.10safer8.63–18.667.45–16.4916.08–35.15
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction8.477.4415.91safe5.52–11.414.76–10.1210.29–21.53safer4.70–12.244.02–10.868.72–23.10
Blocked shots
49%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.332.906.23safe1.45–5.211.25–4.562.70–9.77safer0.91–5.760.76–5.051.66–10.80
Corners
42%
13%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.634.749.36safe2.41–6.842.74–6.745.15–13.58safer1.84–7.412.20–7.274.04–14.68
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction45.3754.90safe38.58–52.1648.12–61.69safer36.91–53.8346.45–63.36
Passes
24%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction387472859safe319–454406–539725–993safer301–472388–556690–1028
Pass accuracy %
25%
70%
homeawayprediction80.2684.87safe76.23–84.2980.55–89.19safer74.94–85.5879.24–90.50
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2412.6824.93safe9.40–15.089.74–15.6319.14–30.71safer8.65–15.838.99–16.3817.64–32.21
Offsides
50%
22%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.473.48safe0.84–3.160.38–2.561.22–5.73safer0.54–3.470.09–2.850.63–6.32
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.324.21safe0.85–2.951.19–3.452.04–6.39safer0.58–3.210.90–3.741.48–6.95
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.120.22safe0.00–0.260.00–0.310.00–0.57safer0.00–0.410.00–0.440.00–0.85
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.003.026.02safe1.56–4.431.46–4.573.02–9.01safer1.17–4.821.04–5.002.21–9.82
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 0.42–2.35 0.17–2.60 | 1.52 0.67–2.38 0.44–2.60 | 2.91 1.08–4.73 0.60–5.21 | 35% 25% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.53 2.67–6.39 2.18–6.88 | 4.69 2.95–6.43 2.48–6.90 | 9.22 5.62–12.83 4.66–13.78 | 41% 13% 45% |
| Total shots | 13.64 9.72–17.57 8.63–18.66 | 11.97 8.41–15.54 7.45–16.49 | 25.61 18.13–33.10 16.08–35.15 | 59% 33% |
| Shots in box | 8.47 5.52–11.41 4.70–12.24 | 7.44 4.76–10.12 4.02–10.86 | 15.91 10.29–21.53 8.72–23.10 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.33 1.45–5.21 0.91–5.76 | 2.90 1.25–4.56 0.76–5.05 | 6.23 2.70–9.77 1.66–10.80 | 49% 16% 35% |
| Corners | 4.63 2.41–6.84 1.84–7.41 | 4.74 2.74–6.74 2.20–7.27 | 9.36 5.15–13.58 4.04–14.68 | 42% 13% 45% |
| Possession % | 45.37 38.58–52.16 36.91–53.83 | 54.90 48.12–61.69 46.45–63.36 | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 387 319–454 301–472 | 472 406–539 388–556 | 859 725–993 690–1028 | 24% 76% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.26 76.23–84.29 74.94–85.58 | 84.87 80.55–89.19 79.24–90.50 | — | 25% 70% |
| Fouls | 12.24 9.40–15.08 8.65–15.83 | 12.68 9.74–15.63 8.99–16.38 | 24.93 19.14–30.71 17.64–32.21 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.00 0.84–3.16 0.54–3.47 | 1.47 0.38–2.56 0.09–2.85 | 3.48 1.22–5.73 0.63–6.32 | 50% 22% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.85–2.95 0.58–3.21 | 2.32 1.19–3.45 0.90–3.74 | 4.21 2.04–6.39 1.48–6.95 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.56–4.43 1.17–4.82 | 3.02 1.46–4.57 1.04–5.00 | 6.02 3.02–9.01 2.21–9.82 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+