Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
20%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.092.133.22safe0.12–2.061.28–2.981.40–5.04safer0.00–2.311.05–3.210.92–5.52
Shots on target
19%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction3.786.059.84safe1.92–5.644.31–7.806.23–13.44safer1.43–6.133.84–8.265.27–14.40
Total shots
16%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4916.2127.71safe7.57–15.4212.65–19.7820.22–35.19safer6.48–16.5111.69–20.7318.17–37.24
Shots in box
14%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction6.7110.6117.32safe3.77–9.657.93–13.2911.70–22.95safer2.94–10.487.19–14.0310.13–24.51
Blocked shots
22%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.104.707.81safe1.22–4.993.05–6.364.27–11.34safer0.68–5.532.56–6.853.24–12.38
Corners
20%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction3.755.899.64safe1.54–5.963.89–7.895.42–13.85safer0.96–6.543.35–8.424.31–14.96
Possession %
18%
79%
homeawayprediction43.3557.81safe36.55–50.1451.03–64.60safer34.89–51.8149.36–66.27
Passes
14%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction360491851safe293–427425–558717–985safer275–445407–575682–1020
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction78.4183.99safe74.38–82.4479.66–88.31safer73.09–83.7378.35–89.62
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7912.3025.09safe9.95–15.639.36–15.2519.31–30.87safer9.20–16.388.61–15.9917.80–32.38
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.643.63safe0.83–3.150.55–2.741.38–5.88safer0.53–3.450.26–3.020.79–6.47
Yellow cards
46%
20%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.181.854.03safe1.13–3.220.72–2.981.85–6.21safer0.86–3.490.43–3.271.29–6.76
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.110.26safe0.00–0.310.00–0.300.00–0.60safer0.00–0.460.00–0.430.00–0.89
GK saves
64%
13%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.242.777.01safe2.80–5.681.22–4.334.02–10.00safer2.42–6.060.79–4.753.21–10.82
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.09 0.12–2.06 0.00–2.31 | 2.13 1.28–2.98 1.05–3.21 | 3.22 1.40–5.04 0.92–5.52 | 19% 20% 61% |
| Shots on target | 3.78 1.92–5.64 1.43–6.13 | 6.05 4.31–7.80 3.84–8.26 | 9.84 6.23–13.44 5.27–14.40 | 19% 71% |
| Total shots | 11.49 7.57–15.42 6.48–16.51 | 16.21 12.65–19.78 11.69–20.73 | 27.71 20.22–35.19 18.17–37.24 | 16% 79% |
| Shots in box | 6.71 3.77–9.65 2.94–10.48 | 10.61 7.93–13.29 7.19–14.03 | 17.32 11.70–22.95 10.13–24.51 | 14% 79% |
| Blocked shots | 3.10 1.22–4.99 0.68–5.53 | 4.70 3.05–6.36 2.56–6.85 | 7.81 4.27–11.34 3.24–12.38 | 22% 65% |
| Corners | 3.75 1.54–5.96 0.96–6.54 | 5.89 3.89–7.89 3.35–8.42 | 9.64 5.42–13.85 4.31–14.96 | 20% 70% |
| Possession % | 43.35 36.55–50.14 34.89–51.81 | 57.81 51.03–64.60 49.36–66.27 | — | 18% 79% |
| Passes | 360 293–427 275–445 | 491 425–558 407–575 | 851 717–985 682–1020 | 14% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.41 74.38–82.44 73.09–83.73 | 83.99 79.66–88.31 78.35–89.62 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 12.79 9.95–15.63 9.20–16.38 | 12.30 9.36–15.25 8.61–15.99 | 25.09 19.31–30.87 17.80–32.38 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.83–3.15 0.53–3.45 | 1.64 0.55–2.74 0.26–3.02 | 3.63 1.38–5.88 0.79–6.47 | 46% 22% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 2.18 1.13–3.22 0.86–3.49 | 1.85 0.72–2.98 0.43–3.27 | 4.03 1.85–6.21 1.29–6.76 | 46% 20% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.26 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.89 | 79% |
| GK saves | 4.24 2.80–5.68 2.42–6.06 | 2.77 1.22–4.33 0.79–4.75 | 7.01 4.02–10.00 3.21–10.82 | 64% 13% 23% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+