Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.112.91safe0.83–2.770.25–1.961.08–4.73safer0.58–3.020.03–2.190.60–5.21
Shots on target
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.123.698.81safe3.26–6.981.95–5.435.21–12.42safer2.77–7.471.48–5.904.25–13.37
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6011.0425.64safe10.67–18.527.48–14.6118.15–33.13safer9.58–19.616.52–15.5616.10–35.18
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction9.536.5616.08safe6.59–12.473.87–9.2410.46–21.71safer5.76–13.303.14–9.978.89–23.27
Blocked shots
44%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.463.336.79safe1.57–5.341.68–4.993.25–10.32safer1.03–5.881.19–5.482.22–11.36
Corners
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.993.709.69safe3.77–8.201.70–5.705.48–13.90safer3.20–8.771.17–6.244.37–15.01
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.8144.91safe49.02–62.6038.12–51.69safer47.35–64.2736.45–53.36
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction447337784safe380–514271–404651–918safer362–532253–421615–954
Pass accuracy %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction68.4267.41safe64.39–72.4463.08–71.73safer63.09–73.7461.77–73.04
Fouls
32%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3417.5232.85safe12.50–18.1714.57–20.4627.07–38.64safer11.74–18.9313.82–21.2125.57–40.14
Offsides
68%
16%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.861.374.23safe1.70–4.020.28–2.461.98–6.49safer1.40–4.320.00–2.751.39–7.07
Yellow cards
29%
17%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.313.055.35safe1.26–3.361.92–4.183.18–7.53safer0.99–3.621.63–4.472.62–8.09
Red cards
76%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.190.29safe0.00–0.260.00–0.380.00–0.64safer0.00–0.410.00–0.510.00–0.92
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.563.245.80safe1.13–4.001.69–4.802.81–8.80safer0.74–4.391.26–5.222.00–9.61
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.80 0.83–2.77 0.58–3.02 | 1.11 0.25–1.96 0.03–2.19 | 2.91 1.08–4.73 0.60–5.21 | 54% 23% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.12 3.26–6.98 2.77–7.47 | 3.69 1.95–5.43 1.48–5.90 | 8.81 5.21–12.42 4.25–13.37 | 62% 26% |
| Total shots | 14.60 10.67–18.52 9.58–19.61 | 11.04 7.48–14.61 6.52–15.56 | 25.64 18.15–33.13 16.10–35.18 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 9.53 6.59–12.47 5.76–13.30 | 6.56 3.87–9.24 3.14–9.97 | 16.08 10.46–21.71 8.89–23.27 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.46 1.57–5.34 1.03–5.88 | 3.33 1.68–4.99 1.19–5.48 | 6.79 3.25–10.32 2.22–11.36 | 44% 16% 40% |
| Corners | 5.99 3.77–8.20 3.20–8.77 | 3.70 1.70–5.70 1.17–6.24 | 9.69 5.48–13.90 4.37–15.01 | 72% 18% |
| Possession % | 55.81 49.02–62.60 47.35–64.27 | 44.91 38.12–51.69 36.45–53.36 | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 447 380–514 362–532 | 337 271–404 253–421 | 784 651–918 615–954 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.42 64.39–72.44 63.09–73.74 | 67.41 63.08–71.73 61.77–73.04 | — | 53% 42% |
| Fouls | 15.34 12.50–18.17 11.74–18.93 | 17.52 14.57–20.46 13.82–21.21 | 32.85 27.07–38.64 25.57–40.14 | 32% 62% |
| Offsides | 2.86 1.70–4.02 1.40–4.32 | 1.37 0.28–2.46 0.00–2.75 | 4.23 1.98–6.49 1.39–7.07 | 68% 16% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 2.31 1.26–3.36 0.99–3.62 | 3.05 1.92–4.18 1.63–4.47 | 5.35 3.18–7.53 2.62–8.09 | 29% 17% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.19 0.00–0.38 0.00–0.51 | 0.29 0.00–0.64 0.00–0.92 | 76% 16% |
| GK saves | 2.56 1.13–4.00 0.74–4.39 | 3.24 1.69–4.80 1.26–5.22 | 5.80 2.81–8.80 2.00–9.61 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.