Predicted match statistics
Goals
22%
22%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.913.05safe0.17–2.101.06–2.771.22–4.87safer0.00–2.350.83–2.990.74–5.35
Shots on target
30%
13%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.704.708.40safe1.84–5.572.95–6.444.79–12.00safer1.35–6.062.49–6.903.84–12.96
Total shots
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7412.8323.57safe6.82–14.669.27–16.3916.08–31.06safer5.72–15.768.31–17.3514.03–33.11
Shots in box
25%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction6.618.7115.32safe3.66–9.556.03–11.399.69–20.94safer2.84–10.385.29–12.138.13–22.51
Blocked shots
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.993.096.08safe1.11–4.871.44–4.742.55–9.62safer0.56–5.420.95–5.241.51–10.65
Corners
26%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction3.955.369.31safe1.74–6.173.36–7.365.10–13.52safer1.17–6.742.82–7.893.99–14.63
Possession %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction43.8657.23safe37.07–50.6550.45–64.02safer35.40–52.3248.77–65.69
Passes
24%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction327412738safe259–394345–478605–872safer241–412328–495569–908
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction65.2873.70safe61.25–69.3169.37–78.02safer59.96–70.6168.06–79.33
Fouls
36%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1816.6931.87safe12.34–18.0113.75–19.6426.09–37.65safer11.58–18.7713.00–20.3924.58–39.16
Offsides
14%
15%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction1.262.864.13safe0.10–2.421.77–3.961.87–6.38safer0.00–2.721.48–4.251.28–6.97
Yellow cards
43%
18%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.632.525.15safe1.58–3.681.39–3.652.97–7.33safer1.31–3.941.10–3.942.41–7.89
Red cards
17%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction0.210.150.37safe0.05–0.370.00–0.340.02–0.71safer0.00–0.520.00–0.470.00–1.00
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.882.655.52safe1.44–4.311.09–4.202.53–8.51safer1.05–4.700.67–4.631.72–9.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.17–2.10 0.00–2.35 | 1.91 1.06–2.77 0.83–2.99 | 3.05 1.22–4.87 0.74–5.35 | 22% 22% 55% |
| Shots on target | 3.70 1.84–5.57 1.35–6.06 | 4.70 2.95–6.44 2.49–6.90 | 8.40 4.79–12.00 3.84–12.96 | 30% 13% 57% |
| Total shots | 10.74 6.82–14.66 5.72–15.76 | 12.83 9.27–16.39 8.31–17.35 | 23.57 16.08–31.06 14.03–33.11 | 30% 63% |
| Shots in box | 6.61 3.66–9.55 2.84–10.38 | 8.71 6.03–11.39 5.29–12.13 | 15.32 9.69–20.94 8.13–22.51 | 25% 66% |
| Blocked shots | 2.99 1.11–4.87 0.56–5.42 | 3.09 1.44–4.74 0.95–5.24 | 6.08 2.55–9.62 1.51–10.65 | 40% 17% 43% |
| Corners | 3.95 1.74–6.17 1.17–6.74 | 5.36 3.36–7.36 2.82–7.89 | 9.31 5.10–13.52 3.99–14.63 | 26% 62% |
| Possession % | 43.86 37.07–50.65 35.40–52.32 | 57.23 50.45–64.02 48.77–65.69 | — | 20% 77% |
| Passes | 327 259–394 241–412 | 412 345–478 328–495 | 738 605–872 569–908 | 24% 76% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.28 61.25–69.31 59.96–70.61 | 73.70 69.37–78.02 68.06–79.33 | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 15.18 12.34–18.01 11.58–18.77 | 16.69 13.75–19.64 13.00–20.39 | 31.87 26.09–37.65 24.58–39.16 | 36% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.26 0.10–2.42 0.00–2.72 | 2.86 1.77–3.96 1.48–4.25 | 4.13 1.87–6.38 1.28–6.97 | 14% 15% 70% |
| Yellow cards | 2.63 1.58–3.68 1.31–3.94 | 2.52 1.39–3.65 1.10–3.94 | 5.15 2.97–7.33 2.41–7.89 | 43% 18% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.21 0.05–0.37 0.00–0.52 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.47 | 0.37 0.02–0.71 0.00–1.00 | 17% 72% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.44–4.31 1.05–4.70 | 2.65 1.09–4.20 0.67–4.63 | 5.52 2.53–8.51 1.72–9.33 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.