Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: G. Manganiello
Goals
61%
22%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.870.862.73safe0.91–2.830.00–1.720.91–4.55safer0.65–3.090.00–1.970.40–5.06actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
81%
homeawaytotalprediction5.982.888.86safe4.12–7.841.17–4.585.29–12.42safer3.62–8.330.70–5.054.33–13.39actual6.002.008.00
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction18.289.8828.15safe14.57–21.986.50–13.2621.07–35.24safer13.54–23.015.57–14.1919.11–37.20actual27.005.0032.00
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction10.345.8016.15safe7.83–12.863.50–8.1011.33–20.96safer6.96–13.722.70–8.909.67–22.62actual18.003.0021.00
Blocked shots
72%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction4.422.406.82safe2.84–6.000.99–3.813.82–9.82safer2.30–6.540.50–4.302.80–10.84actual8.002.0010.00
Corners
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.293.679.96safe4.08–8.501.69–5.655.78–14.14safer3.49–9.091.15–6.194.64–15.28actual10.003.0013.00
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction60.6440.40safe54.33–66.9634.08–46.72safer52.73–68.5632.48–48.31actual54.0046.00
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction530348878safe465–595283–413748–1008safer447–613266–430713–1043actual504467971
Pass accuracy %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction86.4879.06safe82.26–90.7074.56–83.57safer80.96–92.0073.23–84.90
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7113.4925.20safe8.85–14.5710.55–16.4419.40–31.01safer7.97–15.459.63–17.3617.60–32.81actual10.007.0017.00
Offsides
40%
26%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.222.58safe0.15–2.560.06–2.390.21–4.95safer0.00–2.910.00–2.720.00–5.63actual4.002.006.00
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.642.013.66safe0.59–2.700.89–3.141.48–5.83safer0.31–2.970.60–3.430.92–6.39actual0.000.000.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.090.12safe0.00–0.190.00–0.280.00–0.47safer0.00–0.340.00–0.420.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
13%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction1.894.065.95safe0.47–3.302.51–5.612.98–8.92safer0.08–3.692.08–6.052.16–9.74actual2.005.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.87 0.91–2.83 0.65–3.09 | 1.00 | 0.86 0.00–1.72 0.00–1.97 | 0.00 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.40–5.06 | 1.00 | 61% 22% 17% |
| Shots on target | 5.98 4.12–7.84 3.62–8.33 | 6.00 | 2.88 1.17–4.58 0.70–5.05 | 2.00 | 8.86 5.29–12.42 4.33–13.39 | 8.00 | 81% |
| Total shots | 18.28 14.57–21.98 13.54–23.01 | 27.00 | 9.88 6.50–13.26 5.57–14.19 | 5.00 | 28.15 21.07–35.24 19.11–37.20 | 32.00 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 10.34 7.83–12.86 6.96–13.72 | 18.00 | 5.80 3.50–8.10 2.70–8.90 | 3.00 | 16.15 11.33–20.96 9.67–22.62 | 21.00 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 4.42 2.84–6.00 2.30–6.54 | 8.00 | 2.40 0.99–3.81 0.50–4.30 | 2.00 | 6.82 3.82–9.82 2.80–10.84 | 10.00 | 72% 16% |
| Corners | 6.29 4.08–8.50 3.49–9.09 | 10.00 | 3.67 1.69–5.65 1.15–6.19 | 3.00 | 9.96 5.78–14.14 4.64–15.28 | 13.00 | 75% 16% |
| Possession % | 60.64 54.33–66.96 52.73–68.56 | 54.00 | 40.40 34.08–46.72 32.48–48.31 | 46.00 | — | — | 89% |
| Passes | 530 465–595 447–613 | 504 | 348 283–413 266–430 | 467 | 878 748–1008 713–1043 | 971 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.48 82.26–90.70 80.96–92.00 | — | 79.06 74.56–83.57 73.23–84.90 | — | — | — | 81% 16% |
| Fouls | 11.71 8.85–14.57 7.97–15.45 | 10.00 | 13.49 10.55–16.44 9.63–17.36 | 7.00 | 25.20 19.40–31.01 17.60–32.81 | 17.00 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.35 0.15–2.56 0.00–2.91 | 4.00 | 1.22 0.06–2.39 0.00–2.72 | 2.00 | 2.58 0.21–4.95 0.00–5.63 | 6.00 | 40% 26% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.70 0.31–2.97 | 0.00 | 2.01 0.89–3.14 0.60–3.43 | 0.00 | 3.66 1.48–5.83 0.92–6.39 | 0.00 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 1.89 0.47–3.30 0.08–3.69 | 2.00 | 4.06 2.51–5.61 2.08–6.05 | 5.00 | 5.95 2.98–8.92 2.16–9.74 | 7.00 | 13% 75% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+