Coppa Italia·Round of 32·
Coppa Italia·Round of 32·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: L. Marinelli
Goals
60%
23%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.750.812.56safe0.79–2.710.00–1.670.74–4.38safer0.53–2.970.00–1.920.23–4.89actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
72%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction4.792.677.47safe2.94–6.650.97–4.383.90–11.03safer2.44–7.150.50–4.852.94–12.00actual7.000.007.00
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction14.818.5723.38safe11.11–18.515.20–11.9516.30–30.46safer10.07–19.544.26–12.8814.34–32.43actual13.006.0019.00
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction9.995.9015.89safe7.47–12.503.60–8.2011.07–20.71safer6.61–13.372.80–9.009.41–22.37actual8.004.0012.00
Blocked shots
65%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.952.486.44safe2.37–5.541.07–3.903.44–9.44safer1.83–6.070.58–4.392.42–10.46actual3.001.004.00
Corners
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.783.379.15safe3.57–7.981.39–5.354.97–13.34safer2.98–8.580.86–5.893.84–14.47actual3.000.003.00
Possession %
77%
19%
homeawayprediction56.1543.25safe49.83–62.4736.93–49.57safer48.24–64.0735.33–51.17actual53.0047.00
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction494377871safe429–560312–441741–1001safer411–577294–459706–1036actual6005331133
Pass accuracy %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction85.6280.79safe81.41–89.8476.28–85.29safer80.11–91.1474.95–86.62
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6613.3326.00safe9.80–15.5210.39–16.2820.19–31.80safer8.92–16.409.47–17.2018.39–33.60actual17.009.0026.00
Offsides
44%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.222.74safe0.32–2.730.05–2.380.37–5.11safer0.00–3.080.00–2.710.00–5.79actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.023.89safe0.81–2.930.90–3.141.71–6.07safer0.54–3.200.61–3.431.15–6.63actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.140.26safe0.00–0.270.00–0.340.00–0.61safer0.00–0.430.00–0.480.00–0.91actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
25%
17%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.053.025.06safe0.63–3.461.46–4.572.09–8.03safer0.24–3.851.03–5.001.27–8.85actual0.004.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.75 0.79–2.71 0.53–2.97 | 3.00 | 0.81 0.00–1.67 0.00–1.92 | 0.00 | 2.56 0.74–4.38 0.23–4.89 | 3.00 | 60% 23% 17% |
| Shots on target | 4.79 2.94–6.65 2.44–7.15 | 7.00 | 2.67 0.97–4.38 0.50–4.85 | 0.00 | 7.47 3.90–11.03 2.94–12.00 | 7.00 | 72% 16% |
| Total shots | 14.81 11.11–18.51 10.07–19.54 | 13.00 | 8.57 5.20–11.95 4.26–12.88 | 6.00 | 23.38 16.30–30.46 14.34–32.43 | 19.00 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 9.99 7.47–12.50 6.61–13.37 | 8.00 | 5.90 3.60–8.20 2.80–9.00 | 4.00 | 15.89 11.07–20.71 9.41–22.37 | 12.00 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 3.95 2.37–5.54 1.83–6.07 | 3.00 | 2.48 1.07–3.90 0.58–4.39 | 1.00 | 6.44 3.44–9.44 2.42–10.46 | 4.00 | 65% 14% 22% |
| Corners | 5.78 3.57–7.98 2.98–8.58 | 3.00 | 3.37 1.39–5.35 0.86–5.89 | 0.00 | 9.15 4.97–13.34 3.84–14.47 | 3.00 | 74% 17% |
| Possession % | 56.15 49.83–62.47 48.24–64.07 | 53.00 | 43.25 36.93–49.57 35.33–51.17 | 47.00 | — | — | 77% 19% |
| Passes | 494 429–560 411–577 | 600 | 377 312–441 294–459 | 533 | 871 741–1001 706–1036 | 1133 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.62 81.41–89.84 80.11–91.14 | — | 80.79 76.28–85.29 74.95–86.62 | — | — | — | 71% 25% |
| Fouls | 12.66 9.80–15.52 8.92–16.40 | 17.00 | 13.33 10.39–16.28 9.47–17.20 | 9.00 | 26.00 20.19–31.80 18.39–33.60 | 26.00 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.32–2.73 0.00–3.08 | 1.00 | 1.22 0.05–2.38 0.00–2.71 | 0.00 | 2.74 0.37–5.11 0.00–5.79 | 1.00 | 44% 25% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.81–2.93 0.54–3.20 | 2.00 | 2.02 0.90–3.14 0.61–3.43 | 2.00 | 3.89 1.71–6.07 1.15–6.63 | 4.00 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.48 | 0.00 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.91 | 0.00 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.05 0.63–3.46 0.24–3.85 | 0.00 | 3.02 1.46–4.57 1.03–5.00 | 4.00 | 5.06 2.09–8.03 1.27–8.85 | 4.00 | 25% 17% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.