UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
25%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.562.91safe0.38–2.320.71–2.421.09–4.73safer0.13–2.570.48–2.640.61–5.21
Shots on target
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.805.009.80safe2.93–6.663.26–6.746.19–13.40safer2.44–7.152.79–7.215.24–14.36
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1113.1527.26safe10.19–18.049.59–16.7119.77–34.75safer9.10–19.138.63–17.6717.72–36.80
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction9.349.2518.59safe6.40–12.296.57–11.9312.97–24.22safer5.57–13.125.83–12.6711.40–25.78
Blocked shots
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.284.008.29safe2.40–6.172.35–5.664.75–11.82safer1.86–6.711.86–6.153.72–12.86
Corners
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.244.589.82safe3.02–7.452.58–6.585.60–14.03safer2.45–8.022.04–7.114.49–15.14
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction50.0350.34safe43.24–56.8243.55–57.12safer41.57–58.4941.88–58.79
Passes
47%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction448457905safe381–515390–523771–1038safer363–533373–541735–1074
Pass accuracy %
49%
45%
homeawayprediction74.6274.24safe70.59–78.6569.91–78.56safer69.29–79.9468.60–79.87
Fouls
44%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4313.7527.18safe10.59–16.2710.81–16.6921.40–32.96safer9.84–17.0210.06–17.4419.89–34.47
Offsides
44%
22%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.583.41safe0.67–2.990.49–2.671.15–5.66safer0.36–3.290.20–2.960.56–6.25
Yellow cards
40%
18%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.572.615.18safe1.52–3.621.48–3.743.00–7.36safer1.25–3.891.19–4.032.44–7.91
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.120.26safe0.00–0.300.00–0.310.00–0.61safer0.00–0.450.00–0.440.00–0.89
GK saves
46%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.463.216.67safe2.02–4.891.66–4.773.68–9.66safer1.63–5.281.23–5.192.87–10.48
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.38–2.32 0.13–2.57 | 1.56 0.71–2.42 0.48–2.64 | 2.91 1.09–4.73 0.61–5.21 | 33% 25% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.80 2.93–6.66 2.44–7.15 | 5.00 3.26–6.74 2.79–7.21 | 9.80 6.19–13.40 5.24–14.36 | 41% 46% |
| Total shots | 14.11 10.19–18.04 9.10–19.13 | 13.15 9.59–16.71 8.63–17.67 | 27.26 19.77–34.75 17.72–36.80 | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 9.34 6.40–12.29 5.57–13.12 | 9.25 6.57–11.93 5.83–12.67 | 18.59 12.97–24.22 11.40–25.78 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 4.28 2.40–6.17 1.86–6.71 | 4.00 2.35–5.66 1.86–6.15 | 8.29 4.75–11.82 3.72–12.86 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Corners | 5.24 3.02–7.45 2.45–8.02 | 4.58 2.58–6.58 2.04–7.11 | 9.82 5.60–14.03 4.49–15.14 | 52% 35% |
| Possession % | 50.03 43.24–56.82 41.57–58.49 | 50.34 43.55–57.12 41.88–58.79 | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 448 381–515 363–533 | 457 390–523 373–541 | 905 771–1038 735–1074 | 47% 53% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.62 70.59–78.65 69.29–79.94 | 74.24 69.91–78.56 68.60–79.87 | — | 49% 45% |
| Fouls | 13.43 10.59–16.27 9.84–17.02 | 13.75 10.81–16.69 10.06–17.44 | 27.18 21.40–32.96 19.89–34.47 | 44% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.36–3.29 | 1.58 0.49–2.67 0.20–2.96 | 3.41 1.15–5.66 0.56–6.25 | 44% 22% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 2.57 1.52–3.62 1.25–3.89 | 2.61 1.48–3.74 1.19–4.03 | 5.18 3.00–7.36 2.44–7.91 | 40% 18% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 3.46 2.02–4.89 1.63–5.28 | 3.21 1.66–4.77 1.23–5.19 | 6.67 3.68–9.66 2.87–10.48 | 46% 16% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.