UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
26%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.382.73safe0.38–2.320.53–2.240.91–4.55safer0.13–2.570.30–2.460.43–5.03
Shots on target
43%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.664.679.33safe2.80–6.522.93–6.415.72–12.93safer2.31–7.012.46–6.884.77–13.89
Total shots
48%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2913.1026.38safe9.36–17.219.53–16.6618.89–33.87safer8.27–18.308.57–17.6216.84–35.92
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction9.268.8218.08safe6.32–12.206.14–11.5012.46–23.71safer5.49–13.035.40–12.2410.89–25.27
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.663.767.43safe1.78–5.552.11–5.423.89–10.96safer1.24–6.091.62–5.912.85–12.00
Corners
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.824.429.24safe2.61–7.032.42–6.425.02–13.45safer2.03–7.611.88–6.953.92–14.56
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction50.5649.09safe43.77–57.3542.30–55.87safer42.10–59.0240.63–57.55
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction406395801safe339–474328–461667–935safer321–492311–479632–970
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction76.9378.62safe72.90–80.9674.30–82.95safer71.61–82.2572.99–84.25
Fouls
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1314.9228.05safe10.29–15.9711.97–17.8622.27–33.83safer9.54–16.7211.22–18.6120.76–35.34
Offsides
69%
15%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction3.001.464.47safe1.84–4.160.37–2.562.21–6.72safer1.54–4.460.08–2.851.62–7.31
Yellow cards
37%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.632.885.52safe1.58–3.681.75–4.013.34–7.69safer1.32–3.951.46–4.302.78–8.25
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.140.27safe0.00–0.300.00–0.320.00–0.62safer0.00–0.450.00–0.460.00–0.90
GK saves
45%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.373.166.53safe1.93–4.801.60–4.723.53–9.52safer1.54–5.191.18–5.142.72–10.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.38–2.32 0.13–2.57 | 1.38 0.53–2.24 0.30–2.46 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.43–5.03 | 36% 26% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.66 2.80–6.52 2.31–7.01 | 4.67 2.93–6.41 2.46–6.88 | 9.33 5.72–12.93 4.77–13.89 | 43% 13% 44% |
| Total shots | 13.29 9.36–17.21 8.27–18.30 | 13.10 9.53–16.66 8.57–17.62 | 26.38 18.89–33.87 16.84–35.92 | 48% 45% |
| Shots in box | 9.26 6.32–12.20 5.49–13.03 | 8.82 6.14–11.50 5.40–12.24 | 18.08 12.46–23.71 10.89–25.27 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.66 1.78–5.55 1.24–6.09 | 3.76 2.11–5.42 1.62–5.91 | 7.43 3.89–10.96 2.85–12.00 | 41% 15% 44% |
| Corners | 4.82 2.61–7.03 2.03–7.61 | 4.42 2.42–6.42 1.88–6.95 | 9.24 5.02–13.45 3.92–14.56 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Possession % | 50.56 43.77–57.35 42.10–59.02 | 49.09 42.30–55.87 40.63–57.55 | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 406 339–474 321–492 | 395 328–461 311–479 | 801 667–935 632–970 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.93 72.90–80.96 71.61–82.25 | 78.62 74.30–82.95 72.99–84.25 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 13.13 10.29–15.97 9.54–16.72 | 14.92 11.97–17.86 11.22–18.61 | 28.05 22.27–33.83 20.76–35.34 | 33% 60% |
| Offsides | 3.00 1.84–4.16 1.54–4.46 | 1.46 0.37–2.56 0.08–2.85 | 4.47 2.21–6.72 1.62–7.31 | 69% 15% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 2.63 1.58–3.68 1.32–3.95 | 2.88 1.75–4.01 1.46–4.30 | 5.52 3.34–7.69 2.78–8.25 | 37% 17% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 78% |
| GK saves | 3.37 1.93–4.80 1.54–5.19 | 3.16 1.60–4.72 1.18–5.14 | 6.53 3.53–9.52 2.72–10.33 | 45% 16% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.