UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Luís Godinho · Portugal
Goals
48%
25%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.172.78safe0.65–2.570.31–2.030.96–4.60safer0.39–2.840.06–2.280.45–5.11actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.194.229.42safe3.34–7.052.52–5.935.86–12.98safer2.84–7.552.05–6.404.89–13.95actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8713.0127.88safe11.17–18.589.63–16.3820.80–34.96safer10.14–19.618.70–17.3218.83–36.92actual18.0011.0029.00
Shots in box
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction9.897.7817.68safe7.38–12.415.48–10.0912.86–22.49safer6.51–13.274.69–10.8811.20–24.16actual10.005.0015.00
Blocked shots
51%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.963.397.35safe2.37–5.541.98–4.814.35–10.35safer1.84–6.071.49–5.293.33–11.37actual9.002.0011.00
Corners
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.864.028.88safe2.65–7.062.04–6.004.70–13.06safer2.06–7.661.51–6.543.56–14.20actual7.003.0010.00
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction55.1444.45safe48.82–61.4538.13–50.77safer47.22–63.0536.53–52.36actual49.0051.00
Passes
80%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction493394887safe427–558329–458757–1017safer410–576312–476721–1052actual405426831
Pass accuracy %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction83.1281.04safe78.91–87.3476.53–85.55safer77.60–88.6475.20–86.88actual84.0081.00
Fouls
23%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9915.3927.38safe9.13–14.8412.44–18.3321.57–33.18safer8.24–15.7311.53–19.2519.77–34.98actual7.0015.0022.00
Offsides
38%
27%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.242.55safe0.10–2.520.08–2.400.18–4.92safer0.00–2.860.00–2.740.00–5.60actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
41%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.442.454.89safe1.39–3.501.33–3.572.72–7.07safer1.11–3.771.04–3.862.16–7.63actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.110.15safe0.00–0.190.00–0.300.00–0.50safer0.00–0.350.00–0.450.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.793.316.10safe1.38–4.211.76–4.873.13–9.07safer0.99–4.591.33–5.302.31–9.89actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 0.65–2.57 0.39–2.84 | 1.00 | 1.17 0.31–2.03 0.06–2.28 | 0.00 | 2.78 0.96–4.60 0.45–5.11 | 1.00 | 48% 25% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.19 3.34–7.05 2.84–7.55 | 4.00 | 4.22 2.52–5.93 2.05–6.40 | 3.00 | 9.42 5.86–12.98 4.89–13.95 | 7.00 | 56% 31% |
| Total shots | 14.87 11.17–18.58 10.14–19.61 | 18.00 | 13.01 9.63–16.38 8.70–17.32 | 11.00 | 27.88 20.80–34.96 18.83–36.92 | 29.00 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.89 7.38–12.41 6.51–13.27 | 10.00 | 7.78 5.48–10.09 4.69–10.88 | 5.00 | 17.68 12.86–22.49 11.20–24.16 | 15.00 | 65% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 3.96 2.37–5.54 1.84–6.07 | 9.00 | 3.39 1.98–4.81 1.49–5.29 | 2.00 | 7.35 4.35–10.35 3.33–11.37 | 11.00 | 51% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 4.86 2.65–7.06 2.06–7.66 | 7.00 | 4.02 2.04–6.00 1.51–6.54 | 3.00 | 8.88 4.70–13.06 3.56–14.20 | 10.00 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Possession % | 55.14 48.82–61.45 47.22–63.05 | 49.00 | 44.45 38.13–50.77 36.53–52.36 | 51.00 | — | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 493 427–558 410–576 | 405 | 394 329–458 312–476 | 426 | 887 757–1017 721–1052 | 831 | 80% 20% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.12 78.91–87.34 77.60–88.64 | 84.00 | 81.04 76.53–85.55 75.20–86.88 | 81.00 | — | — | 58% 37% |
| Fouls | 11.99 9.13–14.84 8.24–15.73 | 7.00 | 15.39 12.44–18.33 11.53–19.25 | 15.00 | 27.38 21.57–33.18 19.77–34.98 | 22.00 | 23% 71% |
| Offsides | 1.31 0.10–2.52 0.00–2.86 | 2.00 | 1.24 0.08–2.40 0.00–2.74 | 1.00 | 2.55 0.18–4.92 0.00–5.60 | 3.00 | 38% 27% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.44 1.39–3.50 1.11–3.77 | 1.00 | 2.45 1.33–3.57 1.04–3.86 | 2.00 | 4.89 2.72–7.07 2.16–7.63 | 3.00 | 41% 19% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.38–4.21 0.99–4.59 | 3.00 | 3.31 1.76–4.87 1.33–5.30 | 2.00 | 6.10 3.13–9.07 2.31–9.89 | 5.00 | 34% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+