UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.302.97safe0.70–2.640.44–2.151.14–4.79safer0.45–2.890.21–2.380.66–5.27
Shots on target
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.354.489.82safe3.48–7.212.73–6.226.22–13.43safer3.00–7.702.27–6.685.26–14.38
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3112.4727.78safe11.39–19.238.91–16.0420.30–35.27safer10.29–20.337.95–17.0018.25–37.32
Shots in box
67%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction10.608.1818.79safe7.66–13.545.50–10.8613.16–24.41safer6.83–14.374.76–11.6011.59–25.98
Blocked shots
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.654.078.72safe2.77–6.532.42–5.725.19–12.26safer2.23–7.081.93–6.224.15–13.29
Corners
69%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction6.064.0010.06safe3.85–8.282.00–6.005.85–14.27safer3.28–8.851.46–6.534.74–15.38
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction51.2548.81safe44.46–58.0442.02–55.59safer42.79–59.7140.35–57.27
Passes
62%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction501464965safe434–568398–531832–1099safer416–586380–548796–1135
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction74.4073.88safe70.38–78.4369.55–78.20safer69.08–79.7368.25–79.51
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4212.1123.54safe8.59–14.269.17–15.0617.76–29.32safer7.83–15.028.42–15.8116.25–30.83
Offsides
48%
23%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.363.17safe0.65–2.970.26–2.450.92–5.42safer0.35–3.280.00–2.740.33–6.01
Yellow cards
28%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.712.354.05safe0.66–2.761.22–3.481.87–6.23safer0.39–3.020.93–3.771.32–6.79
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
34%
15%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.113.636.73safe1.67–4.542.07–5.183.74–9.72safer1.28–4.931.65–5.612.93–10.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.67 0.70–2.64 0.45–2.89 | 1.30 0.44–2.15 0.21–2.38 | 2.97 1.14–4.79 0.66–5.27 | 46% 24% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.35 3.48–7.21 3.00–7.70 | 4.48 2.73–6.22 2.27–6.68 | 9.82 6.22–13.43 5.26–14.38 | 55% 33% |
| Total shots | 15.31 11.39–19.23 10.29–20.33 | 12.47 8.91–16.04 7.95–17.00 | 27.78 20.30–35.27 18.25–37.32 | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 10.60 7.66–13.54 6.83–14.37 | 8.18 5.50–10.86 4.76–11.60 | 18.79 13.16–24.41 11.59–25.98 | 67% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 4.65 2.77–6.53 2.23–7.08 | 4.07 2.42–5.72 1.93–6.22 | 8.72 5.19–12.26 4.15–13.29 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Corners | 6.06 3.85–8.28 3.28–8.85 | 4.00 2.00–6.00 1.46–6.53 | 10.06 5.85–14.27 4.74–15.38 | 69% 21% |
| Possession % | 51.25 44.46–58.04 42.79–59.71 | 48.81 42.02–55.59 40.35–57.27 | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 501 434–568 416–586 | 464 398–531 380–548 | 965 832–1099 796–1135 | 62% 38% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.40 70.38–78.43 69.08–79.73 | 73.88 69.55–78.20 68.25–79.51 | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 11.42 8.59–14.26 7.83–15.02 | 12.11 9.17–15.06 8.42–15.81 | 23.54 17.76–29.32 16.25–30.83 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.65–2.97 0.35–3.28 | 1.36 0.26–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 3.17 0.92–5.42 0.33–6.01 | 48% 23% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.66–2.76 0.39–3.02 | 2.35 1.22–3.48 0.93–3.77 | 4.05 1.87–6.23 1.32–6.79 | 28% 20% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.11 1.67–4.54 1.28–4.93 | 3.63 2.07–5.18 1.65–5.61 | 6.73 3.74–9.72 2.93–10.54 | 34% 15% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.