UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.312.97safe0.69–2.630.46–2.171.15–4.80safer0.44–2.880.23–2.390.67–5.28
Shots on target
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.884.439.30safe3.01–6.742.68–6.175.70–12.91safer2.52–7.232.22–6.644.74–13.86
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9212.1626.08safe10.00–17.858.60–15.7218.59–33.57safer8.91–18.947.64–16.6816.54–35.62
Shots in box
61%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction9.527.8317.35safe6.58–12.465.15–10.5111.72–22.97safer5.75–13.294.41–11.2510.16–24.54
Blocked shots
46%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.113.908.01safe2.22–5.992.25–5.554.47–11.54safer1.68–6.531.75–6.043.43–12.58
Corners
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.364.369.71safe3.14–7.572.36–6.365.50–13.93safer2.57–8.141.82–6.894.39–15.04
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.7950.43safe43.00–56.5843.65–57.22safer41.33–58.2541.98–58.89
Passes
48%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction469474943safe402–536408–540810–1077safer384–555390–558774–1113
Pass accuracy %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction73.3074.33safe69.27–77.3270.00–78.65safer67.97–78.6268.69–79.96
Fouls
19%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction9.4113.1122.51safe6.57–12.2410.16–16.0516.73–28.29safer5.81–13.009.41–16.8015.23–29.80
Offsides
57%
20%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.281.393.66safe1.12–3.440.29–2.481.41–5.92safer0.81–3.740.01–2.770.82–6.51
Yellow cards
25%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.432.193.62safe0.38–2.481.06–3.321.45–5.80safer0.12–2.750.77–3.610.89–6.36
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.903.166.07safe1.47–4.341.61–4.723.07–9.06safer1.08–4.731.18–5.142.26–9.87
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.66 0.69–2.63 0.44–2.88 | 1.31 0.46–2.17 0.23–2.39 | 2.97 1.15–4.80 0.67–5.28 | 46% 24% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.88 3.01–6.74 2.52–7.23 | 4.43 2.68–6.17 2.22–6.64 | 9.30 5.70–12.91 4.74–13.86 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Total shots | 13.92 10.00–17.85 8.91–18.94 | 12.16 8.60–15.72 7.64–16.68 | 26.08 18.59–33.57 16.54–35.62 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.52 6.58–12.46 5.75–13.29 | 7.83 5.15–10.51 4.41–11.25 | 17.35 11.72–22.97 10.16–24.54 | 61% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 4.11 2.22–5.99 1.68–6.53 | 3.90 2.25–5.55 1.75–6.04 | 8.01 4.47–11.54 3.43–12.58 | 46% 14% 40% |
| Corners | 5.36 3.14–7.57 2.57–8.14 | 4.36 2.36–6.36 1.82–6.89 | 9.71 5.50–13.93 4.39–15.04 | 56% 31% |
| Possession % | 49.79 43.00–56.58 41.33–58.25 | 50.43 43.65–57.22 41.98–58.89 | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 469 402–536 384–555 | 474 408–540 390–558 | 943 810–1077 774–1113 | 48% 51% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.30 69.27–77.32 67.97–78.62 | 74.33 70.00–78.65 68.69–79.96 | — | 42% 53% |
| Fouls | 9.41 6.57–12.24 5.81–13.00 | 13.11 10.16–16.05 9.41–16.80 | 22.51 16.73–28.29 15.23–29.80 | 19% 75% |
| Offsides | 2.28 1.12–3.44 0.81–3.74 | 1.39 0.29–2.48 0.01–2.77 | 3.66 1.41–5.92 0.82–6.51 | 57% 20% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.43 0.38–2.48 0.12–2.75 | 2.19 1.06–3.32 0.77–3.61 | 3.62 1.45–5.80 0.89–6.36 | 25% 20% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.47–4.34 1.08–4.73 | 3.16 1.61–4.72 1.18–5.14 | 6.07 3.07–9.06 2.26–9.87 | 38% 16% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.