Predicted match statistics
Goals
62%
21%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.030.993.02safe1.06–3.000.13–1.841.20–4.84safer0.81–3.250.00–2.070.72–5.32
Shots on target
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.243.629.86safe4.38–8.111.88–5.366.26–13.47safer3.89–8.601.41–5.835.30–14.42
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction16.919.8626.76safe12.98–20.836.30–13.4219.28–34.25safer11.89–21.925.34–14.3817.23–36.30
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction12.116.6518.76safe9.17–15.053.97–9.3313.14–24.38safer8.34–15.883.23–10.0711.57–25.95
Blocked shots
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.812.717.51safe2.93–6.691.05–4.363.98–11.05safer2.38–7.230.56–4.852.94–12.09
Corners
84%
homeawaytotalprediction6.853.2510.10safe4.64–9.071.25–5.255.89–14.31safer4.06–9.640.71–5.784.78–15.42
Possession %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction54.6445.19safe47.85–61.4338.40–51.97safer46.18–63.1036.73–53.65
Passes
77%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction524435959safe456–591369–501825–1092safer438–609351–519789–1128
Pass accuracy %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction77.1473.29safe73.11–81.1768.96–77.61safer71.82–82.4667.66–78.92
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0311.4423.47safe9.19–14.878.49–14.3817.68–29.25safer8.44–15.627.74–15.1316.18–30.75
Offsides
58%
20%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.191.293.48safe1.03–3.350.20–2.381.23–5.73safer0.73–3.650.00–2.670.64–6.32
Yellow cards
26%
20%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.542.243.78safe0.49–2.591.11–3.371.60–5.96safer0.22–2.850.82–3.661.04–6.51
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
22%
13%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.644.146.78safe1.21–4.082.58–5.703.79–9.77safer0.82–4.472.16–6.122.98–10.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.03 1.06–3.00 0.81–3.25 | 0.99 0.13–1.84 0.00–2.07 | 3.02 1.20–4.84 0.72–5.32 | 62% 21% 18% |
| Shots on target | 6.24 4.38–8.11 3.89–8.60 | 3.62 1.88–5.36 1.41–5.83 | 9.86 6.26–13.47 5.30–14.42 | 75% 16% |
| Total shots | 16.91 12.98–20.83 11.89–21.92 | 9.86 6.30–13.42 5.34–14.38 | 26.76 19.28–34.25 17.23–36.30 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 12.11 9.17–15.05 8.34–15.88 | 6.65 3.97–9.33 3.23–10.07 | 18.76 13.14–24.38 11.57–25.95 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 4.81 2.93–6.69 2.38–7.23 | 2.71 1.05–4.36 0.56–4.85 | 7.51 3.98–11.05 2.94–12.09 | 72% 17% |
| Corners | 6.85 4.64–9.07 4.06–9.64 | 3.25 1.25–5.25 0.71–5.78 | 10.10 5.89–14.31 4.78–15.42 | 84% |
| Possession % | 54.64 47.85–61.43 46.18–63.10 | 45.19 38.40–51.97 36.73–53.65 | — | 69% 27% |
| Passes | 524 456–591 438–609 | 435 369–501 351–519 | 959 825–1092 789–1128 | 77% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.14 73.11–81.17 71.82–82.46 | 73.29 68.96–77.61 67.66–78.92 | — | 67% 29% |
| Fouls | 12.03 9.19–14.87 8.44–15.62 | 11.44 8.49–14.38 7.74–15.13 | 23.47 17.68–29.25 16.18–30.75 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 2.19 1.03–3.35 0.73–3.65 | 1.29 0.20–2.38 0.00–2.67 | 3.48 1.23–5.73 0.64–6.32 | 58% 20% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.49–2.59 0.22–2.85 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 3.78 1.60–5.96 1.04–6.51 | 26% 20% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.64 1.21–4.08 0.82–4.47 | 4.14 2.58–5.70 2.16–6.12 | 6.78 3.79–9.77 2.98–10.59 | 22% 13% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.