UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.182.63safe0.48–2.410.33–2.040.80–4.45safer0.22–2.660.10–2.270.32–4.93
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.773.718.48safe2.90–6.631.97–5.464.87–12.08safer2.41–7.121.50–5.923.92–13.04
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3410.8125.15safe10.41–18.267.25–14.3717.66–32.64safer9.32–19.356.29–15.3315.61–34.69
Shots in box
74%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction9.556.5116.06safe6.61–12.493.83–9.1910.44–21.68safer5.78–13.323.09–9.938.87–23.25
Blocked shots
59%
14%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.872.746.61safe1.98–5.751.09–4.393.07–10.14safer1.44–6.290.59–4.882.03–11.18
Corners
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.163.608.77safe2.95–7.381.60–5.604.55–12.98safer2.38–7.951.07–6.143.44–14.09
Possession %
46%
50%
homeawayprediction49.4450.29safe42.65–56.2343.50–57.07safer40.98–57.9041.83–58.74
Passes
44%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction453472925safe386–520406–538791–1059safer368–538388–556756–1094
Pass accuracy %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction76.7876.69safe72.75–80.8172.36–81.01safer71.46–82.1071.05–82.32
Fouls
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6212.0925.70safe10.78–16.469.14–15.0319.92–31.49safer10.02–17.218.39–15.7818.42–32.99
Offsides
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.683.29safe0.44–2.760.59–2.781.03–5.54safer0.14–3.070.30–3.070.45–6.13
Yellow cards
42%
19%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.482.414.90safe1.43–3.531.29–3.542.72–7.07safer1.17–3.800.99–3.832.16–7.63
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.130.26safe0.00–0.290.00–0.320.00–0.61safer0.00–0.440.00–0.450.00–0.89
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.713.015.72safe1.27–4.141.46–4.572.73–8.71safer0.88–4.531.03–4.991.92–9.52
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.48–2.41 0.22–2.66 | 1.18 0.33–2.04 0.10–2.27 | 2.63 0.80–4.45 0.32–4.93 | 43% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.77 2.90–6.63 2.41–7.12 | 3.71 1.97–5.46 1.50–5.92 | 8.48 4.87–12.08 3.92–13.04 | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.34 10.41–18.26 9.32–19.35 | 10.81 7.25–14.37 6.29–15.33 | 25.15 17.66–32.64 15.61–34.69 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 9.55 6.61–12.49 5.78–13.32 | 6.51 3.83–9.19 3.09–9.93 | 16.06 10.44–21.68 8.87–23.25 | 74% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.87 1.98–5.75 1.44–6.29 | 2.74 1.09–4.39 0.59–4.88 | 6.61 3.07–10.14 2.03–11.18 | 59% 14% 26% |
| Corners | 5.16 2.95–7.38 2.38–7.95 | 3.60 1.60–5.60 1.07–6.14 | 8.77 4.55–12.98 3.44–14.09 | 64% 24% |
| Possession % | 49.44 42.65–56.23 40.98–57.90 | 50.29 43.50–57.07 41.83–58.74 | — | 46% 50% |
| Passes | 453 386–520 368–538 | 472 406–538 388–556 | 925 791–1059 756–1094 | 44% 56% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.78 72.75–80.81 71.46–82.10 | 76.69 72.36–81.01 71.05–82.32 | — | 48% 47% |
| Fouls | 13.62 10.78–16.46 10.02–17.21 | 12.09 9.14–15.03 8.39–15.78 | 25.70 19.92–31.49 18.42–32.99 | 58% 34% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.14–3.07 | 1.68 0.59–2.78 0.30–3.07 | 3.29 1.03–5.54 0.45–6.13 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.48 1.43–3.53 1.17–3.80 | 2.41 1.29–3.54 0.99–3.83 | 4.90 2.72–7.07 2.16–7.63 | 42% 19% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.71 1.27–4.14 0.88–4.53 | 3.01 1.46–4.57 1.03–4.99 | 5.72 2.73–8.71 1.92–9.52 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.