UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
81%
homeawaytotalprediction2.780.683.46safe1.81–3.750.00–1.531.64–5.28safer1.56–4.000.00–1.761.16–5.76
Shots on target
95%
homeawaytotalprediction7.932.2610.19safe6.07–9.800.52–4.006.59–13.80safer5.58–10.290.05–4.475.63–14.75
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction19.637.6027.24safe15.71–23.564.04–11.1719.75–34.72safer14.62–24.653.08–12.1317.70–36.78
Shots in box
99%
homeawaytotalprediction14.373.9418.31safe11.43–17.311.25–6.6212.68–23.93safer10.60–18.140.52–7.3511.12–25.50
Blocked shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction4.791.596.39safe2.91–6.680.00–3.242.85–9.92safer2.37–7.220.00–3.741.82–10.96
Corners
93%
homeawaytotalprediction7.642.4810.12safe5.43–9.860.48–4.485.91–14.34safer4.86–10.430.00–5.014.80–15.44
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction63.3236.12safe56.53–70.1129.34–42.91safer54.86–71.7827.66–44.58
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction612331942safe544–679264–397809–1076safer526–697247–415773–1112
Pass accuracy %
97%
homeawayprediction84.4869.93safe80.45–88.5165.61–74.25safer79.16–89.8064.30–75.56
Fouls
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1810.3722.55safe9.34–15.027.42–13.3116.77–28.33safer8.59–15.786.68–14.0615.26–29.84
Offsides
71%
14%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction3.191.474.66safe2.03–4.350.38–2.572.41–6.91safer1.73–4.650.09–2.851.82–7.50
Yellow cards
24%
20%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.412.213.62safe0.36–2.461.08–3.341.44–5.80safer0.09–2.730.79–3.630.88–6.35
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.140.18safe0.00–0.210.00–0.320.00–0.53safer0.00–0.360.00–0.450.00–0.81
GK saves
86%
homeawaytotalprediction1.634.846.47safe0.19–3.063.28–6.403.48–9.46safer0.00–3.452.86–6.822.66–10.27
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.78 1.81–3.75 1.56–4.00 | 0.68 0.00–1.53 0.00–1.76 | 3.46 1.64–5.28 1.16–5.76 | 81% |
| Shots on target | 7.93 6.07–9.80 5.58–10.29 | 2.26 0.52–4.00 0.05–4.47 | 10.19 6.59–13.80 5.63–14.75 | 95% |
| Total shots | 19.63 15.71–23.56 14.62–24.65 | 7.60 4.04–11.17 3.08–12.13 | 27.24 19.75–34.72 17.70–36.78 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 14.37 11.43–17.31 10.60–18.14 | 3.94 1.25–6.62 0.52–7.35 | 18.31 12.68–23.93 11.12–25.50 | 99% |
| Blocked shots | 4.79 2.91–6.68 2.37–7.22 | 1.59 0.00–3.24 0.00–3.74 | 6.39 2.85–9.92 1.82–10.96 | 86% |
| Corners | 7.64 5.43–9.86 4.86–10.43 | 2.48 0.48–4.48 0.00–5.01 | 10.12 5.91–14.34 4.80–15.44 | 93% |
| Possession % | 63.32 56.53–70.11 54.86–71.78 | 36.12 29.34–42.91 27.66–44.58 | — | 94% |
| Passes | 612 544–679 526–697 | 331 264–397 247–415 | 942 809–1076 773–1112 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.48 80.45–88.51 79.16–89.80 | 69.93 65.61–74.25 64.30–75.56 | — | 97% |
| Fouls | 12.18 9.34–15.02 8.59–15.78 | 10.37 7.42–13.31 6.68–14.06 | 22.55 16.77–28.33 15.26–29.84 | 61% 31% |
| Offsides | 3.19 2.03–4.35 1.73–4.65 | 1.47 0.38–2.57 0.09–2.85 | 4.66 2.41–6.91 1.82–7.50 | 71% 14% 14% |
| Yellow cards | 1.41 0.36–2.46 0.09–2.73 | 2.21 1.08–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 3.62 1.44–5.80 0.88–6.35 | 24% 20% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 1.63 0.19–3.06 0.00–3.45 | 4.84 3.28–6.40 2.86–6.82 | 6.47 3.48–9.46 2.66–10.27 | 86% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+