UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 7·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 7·Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
23%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.873.21safe0.37–2.311.01–2.721.38–5.03safer0.12–2.560.78–2.950.90–5.51
Shots on target
32%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction4.295.249.52safe2.42–6.153.49–6.985.92–13.13safer1.94–6.643.03–7.444.96–14.08
Total shots
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5014.1826.68safe8.57–16.4210.62–17.7519.20–34.17safer7.48–17.519.66–18.7117.14–36.22
Shots in box
32%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction8.359.8118.16safe5.41–11.297.13–12.4912.54–23.78safer4.58–12.126.39–13.2310.97–25.35
Blocked shots
38%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.403.687.09safe1.52–5.292.03–5.343.55–10.62safer0.98–5.831.54–5.832.52–11.66
Corners
40%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.795.119.91safe2.58–7.013.11–7.115.69–14.12safer2.01–7.582.58–7.654.59–15.23
Possession %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction46.6353.00safe39.84–53.4246.21–59.78safer38.17–55.0944.54–61.45
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction442501942safe375–509434–567809–1076safer357–527417–585773–1112
Pass accuracy %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction70.2374.80safe66.20–74.2670.47–79.12safer64.90–75.5569.16–80.43
Fouls
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction9.9412.2422.18safe7.11–12.789.29–15.1816.40–27.96safer6.35–13.548.54–15.9314.89–29.47
Offsides
17%
14%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction1.853.485.33safe0.69–3.012.39–4.573.07–7.58safer0.39–3.312.10–4.862.48–8.17
Yellow cards
26%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.452.133.58safe0.40–2.501.00–3.251.40–5.76safer0.14–2.770.71–3.550.84–6.32
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.342.956.29safe1.90–4.771.40–4.513.30–9.28safer1.51–5.160.97–4.932.49–10.09
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.31 0.12–2.56 | 1.87 1.01–2.72 0.78–2.95 | 3.21 1.38–5.03 0.90–5.51 | 28% 23% 50% |
| Shots on target | 4.29 2.42–6.15 1.94–6.64 | 5.24 3.49–6.98 3.03–7.44 | 9.52 5.92–13.13 4.96–14.08 | 32% 56% |
| Total shots | 12.50 8.57–16.42 7.48–17.51 | 14.18 10.62–17.75 9.66–18.71 | 26.68 19.20–34.17 17.14–36.22 | 34% 59% |
| Shots in box | 8.35 5.41–11.29 4.58–12.12 | 9.81 7.13–12.49 6.39–13.23 | 18.16 12.54–23.78 10.97–25.35 | 32% 59% |
| Blocked shots | 3.40 1.52–5.29 0.98–5.83 | 3.68 2.03–5.34 1.54–5.83 | 7.09 3.55–10.62 2.52–11.66 | 38% 15% 46% |
| Corners | 4.79 2.58–7.01 2.01–7.58 | 5.11 3.11–7.11 2.58–7.65 | 9.91 5.69–14.12 4.59–15.23 | 40% 48% |
| Possession % | 46.63 39.84–53.42 38.17–55.09 | 53.00 46.21–59.78 44.54–61.45 | — | 33% 62% |
| Passes | 442 375–509 357–527 | 501 434–567 417–585 | 942 809–1076 773–1112 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.23 66.20–74.26 64.90–75.55 | 74.80 70.47–79.12 69.16–80.43 | — | 26% 70% |
| Fouls | 9.94 7.11–12.78 6.35–13.54 | 12.24 9.29–15.18 8.54–15.93 | 22.18 16.40–27.96 14.89–29.47 | 28% 65% |
| Offsides | 1.85 0.69–3.01 0.39–3.31 | 3.48 2.39–4.57 2.10–4.86 | 5.33 3.07–7.58 2.48–8.17 | 17% 14% 69% |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 0.40–2.50 0.14–2.77 | 2.13 1.00–3.25 0.71–3.55 | 3.58 1.40–5.76 0.84–6.32 | 26% 21% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.34 1.90–4.77 1.51–5.16 | 2.95 1.40–4.51 0.97–4.93 | 6.29 3.30–9.28 2.49–10.09 | 48% 16% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.