UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
24%
22%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.893.07safe0.21–2.151.04–2.751.25–4.89safer0.00–2.400.81–2.970.77–5.37
Shots on target
17%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction3.786.209.97safe1.91–5.644.46–7.946.37–13.58safer1.42–6.133.99–8.415.41–14.54
Total shots
16%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5615.0325.59safe6.64–14.4811.46–18.5918.10–33.07safer5.54–15.5810.51–19.5516.05–35.13
Shots in box
23%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction7.259.7517.00safe4.31–10.207.07–12.4311.38–22.63safer3.48–11.036.33–13.179.81–24.19
Blocked shots
27%
14%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.084.187.26safe1.20–4.962.53–5.833.73–10.80safer0.66–5.512.04–6.332.69–11.83
Corners
20%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction3.695.789.48safe1.48–5.913.78–7.785.26–13.69safer0.91–6.483.25–8.324.16–14.80
Possession %
95%
homeawayprediction35.8664.47safe29.07–42.6557.69–71.26safer27.40–44.3256.02–72.93
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction3656571022safe298–433590–723888–1156safer280–451573–741853–1191
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction69.5983.62safe65.56–73.6279.30–87.95safer64.27–74.9177.99–89.26
Fouls
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction10.629.1319.75safe7.78–13.466.18–12.0713.96–25.53safer7.02–14.215.43–12.8212.46–27.03
Offsides
49%
20%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.241.743.98safe1.08–3.400.65–2.841.73–6.23safer0.77–3.700.36–3.131.14–6.82
Yellow cards
46%
21%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.071.733.80safe1.02–3.120.61–2.861.63–5.98safer0.75–3.390.31–3.161.07–6.54
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.070.17safe0.00–0.260.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.410.00–0.390.00–0.80
GK saves
61%
15%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.472.265.72safe2.03–4.900.70–3.812.73–8.72safer1.64–5.290.28–4.241.92–9.53
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.21–2.15 0.00–2.40 | 1.89 1.04–2.75 0.81–2.97 | 3.07 1.25–4.89 0.77–5.37 | 24% 22% 54% |
| Shots on target | 3.78 1.91–5.64 1.42–6.13 | 6.20 4.46–7.94 3.99–8.41 | 9.97 6.37–13.58 5.41–14.54 | 17% 73% |
| Total shots | 10.56 6.64–14.48 5.54–15.58 | 15.03 11.46–18.59 10.51–19.55 | 25.59 18.10–33.07 16.05–35.13 | 16% 78% |
| Shots in box | 7.25 4.31–10.20 3.48–11.03 | 9.75 7.07–12.43 6.33–13.17 | 17.00 11.38–22.63 9.81–24.19 | 23% 69% |
| Blocked shots | 3.08 1.20–4.96 0.66–5.51 | 4.18 2.53–5.83 2.04–6.33 | 7.26 3.73–10.80 2.69–11.83 | 27% 14% 59% |
| Corners | 3.69 1.48–5.91 0.91–6.48 | 5.78 3.78–7.78 3.25–8.32 | 9.48 5.26–13.69 4.16–14.80 | 20% 70% |
| Possession % | 35.86 29.07–42.65 27.40–44.32 | 64.47 57.69–71.26 56.02–72.93 | — | 95% |
| Passes | 365 298–433 280–451 | 657 590–723 573–741 | 1022 888–1156 853–1191 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.59 65.56–73.62 64.27–74.91 | 83.62 79.30–87.95 77.99–89.26 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 10.62 7.78–13.46 7.02–14.21 | 9.13 6.18–12.07 5.43–12.82 | 19.75 13.96–25.53 12.46–27.03 | 59% 33% |
| Offsides | 2.24 1.08–3.40 0.77–3.70 | 1.74 0.65–2.84 0.36–3.13 | 3.98 1.73–6.23 1.14–6.82 | 49% 20% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.07 1.02–3.12 0.75–3.39 | 1.73 0.61–2.86 0.31–3.16 | 3.80 1.63–5.98 1.07–6.54 | 46% 21% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.47 2.03–4.90 1.64–5.29 | 2.26 0.70–3.81 0.28–4.24 | 5.72 2.73–8.72 1.92–9.53 | 61% 15% 23% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+