UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 8·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
23%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.373.11safe0.77–2.700.52–2.231.28–4.93safer0.52–2.950.29–2.450.80–5.41
Shots on target
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.373.769.13safe3.51–7.232.02–5.505.53–12.74safer3.02–7.721.55–5.974.57–13.69
Total shots
80%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2610.4325.69safe11.34–19.196.86–13.9918.20–33.18safer10.25–20.285.90–14.9516.15–35.23
Shots in box
80%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction10.726.7817.50safe7.78–13.664.10–9.4611.87–23.12safer6.95–14.493.36–10.1910.31–24.69
Blocked shots
63%
13%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.322.957.27safe2.44–6.201.30–4.613.74–10.81safer1.90–6.750.81–5.102.70–11.85
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.733.869.59safe3.52–7.951.86–5.865.37–13.80safer2.94–8.521.32–6.394.27–14.91
Possession %
50%
46%
homeawayprediction50.9350.08safe44.14–57.7243.29–56.86safer42.47–59.3941.62–58.53
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction480455935safe413–547389–522801–1069safer394–565371–539766–1104
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction74.5276.52safe70.49–78.5572.19–80.84safer69.20–79.8470.88–82.15
Fouls
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5411.0723.61safe9.70–15.388.13–14.0217.83–29.39safer8.95–16.137.38–14.7716.33–30.90
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.443.19safe0.59–2.910.35–2.540.94–5.45safer0.29–3.210.06–2.830.35–6.04
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.003.77safe0.72–2.820.87–3.131.59–5.94safer0.45–3.090.58–3.421.03–6.50
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
27%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.523.496.01safe1.08–3.951.94–5.053.02–9.00safer0.69–4.341.51–5.472.21–9.82
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.74 0.77–2.70 0.52–2.95 | 1.37 0.52–2.23 0.29–2.45 | 3.11 1.28–4.93 0.80–5.41 | 46% 23% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.37 3.51–7.23 3.02–7.72 | 3.76 2.02–5.50 1.55–5.97 | 9.13 5.53–12.74 4.57–13.69 | 64% 24% |
| Total shots | 15.26 11.34–19.19 10.25–20.28 | 10.43 6.86–13.99 5.90–14.95 | 25.69 18.20–33.18 16.15–35.23 | 80% 14% |
| Shots in box | 10.72 7.78–13.66 6.95–14.49 | 6.78 4.10–9.46 3.36–10.19 | 17.50 11.87–23.12 10.31–24.69 | 80% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 4.32 2.44–6.20 1.90–6.75 | 2.95 1.30–4.61 0.81–5.10 | 7.27 3.74–10.81 2.70–11.85 | 63% 13% 24% |
| Corners | 5.73 3.52–7.95 2.94–8.52 | 3.86 1.86–5.86 1.32–6.39 | 9.59 5.37–13.80 4.27–14.91 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 50.93 44.14–57.72 42.47–59.39 | 50.08 43.29–56.86 41.62–58.53 | — | 50% 46% |
| Passes | 480 413–547 394–565 | 455 389–522 371–539 | 935 801–1069 766–1104 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.52 70.49–78.55 69.20–79.84 | 76.52 72.19–80.84 70.88–82.15 | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 12.54 9.70–15.38 8.95–16.13 | 11.07 8.13–14.02 7.38–14.77 | 23.61 17.83–29.39 16.33–30.90 | 58% 34% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.59–2.91 0.29–3.21 | 1.44 0.35–2.54 0.06–2.83 | 3.19 0.94–5.45 0.35–6.04 | 45% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.82 0.45–3.09 | 2.00 0.87–3.13 0.58–3.42 | 3.77 1.59–5.94 1.03–6.50 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.52 1.08–3.95 0.69–4.34 | 3.49 1.94–5.05 1.51–5.47 | 6.01 3.02–9.00 2.21–9.82 | 27% 15% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.