UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
80%
homeawaytotalprediction3.050.893.94safe2.08–4.020.03–1.742.11–5.76safer1.83–4.270.00–1.971.63–6.24
Shots on target
92%
homeawaytotalprediction8.062.9811.04safe6.20–9.921.24–4.727.43–14.64safer5.71–10.410.77–5.196.48–15.60
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction20.547.9228.46safe16.61–24.464.36–11.4820.97–35.95safer15.52–25.553.40–12.4418.92–38.00
Shots in box
96%
homeawaytotalprediction13.855.6819.53safe10.91–16.803.00–8.3613.91–25.15safer10.08–17.622.26–9.1012.34–26.72
Blocked shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction4.841.636.48safe2.96–6.730.00–3.292.94–10.01safer2.42–7.270.00–3.781.91–11.05
Corners
92%
homeawaytotalprediction7.542.6810.22safe5.33–9.750.68–4.686.00–14.43safer4.75–10.330.14–5.214.90–15.54
Possession %
99%
homeawayprediction70.6729.28safe63.88–77.4622.49–36.06safer62.21–79.1320.82–37.74
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction7303151045safe663–797248–381911–1178safer645–815231–399875–1214
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction82.6968.66safe78.66–86.7264.33–72.98safer77.37–88.0163.02–74.29
Fouls
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction9.9611.0821.04safe7.12–12.798.14–14.0215.25–26.82safer6.36–13.557.39–14.7713.75–28.32
Offsides
45%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.473.316.79safe2.31–4.632.22–4.414.53–9.04safer2.01–4.941.93–4.703.95–9.63
Yellow cards
27%
22%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.432.013.45safe0.38–2.480.88–3.141.27–5.62safer0.12–2.750.59–3.430.71–6.18
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
83%
homeawaytotalprediction2.055.097.15safe0.62–3.493.54–6.654.16–10.14safer0.23–3.883.11–7.073.34–10.95
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.05 2.08–4.02 1.83–4.27 | 0.89 0.03–1.74 0.00–1.97 | 3.94 2.11–5.76 1.63–6.24 | 80% |
| Shots on target | 8.06 6.20–9.92 5.71–10.41 | 2.98 1.24–4.72 0.77–5.19 | 11.04 7.43–14.64 6.48–15.60 | 92% |
| Total shots | 20.54 16.61–24.46 15.52–25.55 | 7.92 4.36–11.48 3.40–12.44 | 28.46 20.97–35.95 18.92–38.00 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 13.85 10.91–16.80 10.08–17.62 | 5.68 3.00–8.36 2.26–9.10 | 19.53 13.91–25.15 12.34–26.72 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 4.84 2.96–6.73 2.42–7.27 | 1.63 0.00–3.29 0.00–3.78 | 6.48 2.94–10.01 1.91–11.05 | 86% |
| Corners | 7.54 5.33–9.75 4.75–10.33 | 2.68 0.68–4.68 0.14–5.21 | 10.22 6.00–14.43 4.90–15.54 | 92% |
| Possession % | 70.67 63.88–77.46 62.21–79.13 | 29.28 22.49–36.06 20.82–37.74 | — | 99% |
| Passes | 730 663–797 645–815 | 315 248–381 231–399 | 1045 911–1178 875–1214 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.69 78.66–86.72 77.37–88.01 | 68.66 64.33–72.98 63.02–74.29 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 9.96 7.12–12.79 6.36–13.55 | 11.08 8.14–14.02 7.39–14.77 | 21.04 15.25–26.82 13.75–28.32 | 36% 55% |
| Offsides | 3.47 2.31–4.63 2.01–4.94 | 3.31 2.22–4.41 1.93–4.70 | 6.79 4.53–9.04 3.95–9.63 | 45% 16% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.43 0.38–2.48 0.12–2.75 | 2.01 0.88–3.14 0.59–3.43 | 3.45 1.27–5.62 0.71–6.18 | 27% 22% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.05 0.62–3.49 0.23–3.88 | 5.09 3.54–6.65 3.11–7.07 | 7.15 4.16–10.14 3.34–10.95 | 83% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+