Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Sven Jablonski · Germany
Goals
80%
homeawaytotalprediction3.150.964.11safe2.19–4.120.10–1.822.29–5.93safer1.93–4.380.00–2.061.78–6.44actual5.001.006.00
Shots on target
87%
homeawaytotalprediction7.503.4010.91safe5.65–9.361.70–5.117.34–14.47safer5.15–9.861.23–5.586.38–15.44actual9.002.0011.00
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction18.518.3326.84safe14.81–22.224.95–11.7119.76–33.92safer13.78–23.254.02–12.6417.80–35.89actual24.004.0028.00
Shots in box
96%
homeawaytotalprediction13.415.3418.75safe10.89–15.923.04–7.6413.93–23.56safer10.03–16.792.24–8.4412.27–25.23actual13.003.0016.00
Blocked shots
77%
homeawaytotalprediction4.632.206.83safe3.05–6.220.78–3.613.83–9.83safer2.51–6.750.30–4.102.81–10.85actual5.001.006.00
Corners
89%
homeawaytotalprediction7.343.0310.37safe5.13–9.551.05–5.016.19–14.55safer4.54–10.140.51–5.555.05–15.69actual4.001.005.00
Possession %
99%
homeawayprediction68.4131.74safe62.09–74.7225.43–38.06safer60.49–76.3223.83–39.66actual72.0028.00
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction680306986safe615–746241–371857–1116safer598–763224–388821–1152actual7943081102
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction89.2176.47safe85.00–93.4371.96–80.98safer83.70–94.7370.63–82.31
Fouls
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction8.4411.0819.52safe5.58–11.298.14–14.0313.72–25.32safer4.69–12.187.22–14.9511.91–27.12actual10.0012.0022.00
Offsides
42%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.172.074.25safe0.96–3.380.91–3.241.87–6.62safer0.62–3.730.58–3.571.20–7.30actual2.008.0010.00
Yellow cards
23%
21%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.292.103.40safe0.23–2.350.98–3.231.22–5.57safer0.00–2.620.69–3.520.66–6.13actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.060.11safe0.00–0.190.00–0.260.00–0.45safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
20%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.644.296.93safe1.22–4.052.74–5.853.96–9.90safer0.83–4.442.31–6.283.14–10.72actual1.004.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.15 2.19–4.12 1.93–4.38 | 5.00 | 0.96 0.10–1.82 0.00–2.06 | 1.00 | 4.11 2.29–5.93 1.78–6.44 | 6.00 | 80% |
| Shots on target | 7.50 5.65–9.36 5.15–9.86 | 9.00 | 3.40 1.70–5.11 1.23–5.58 | 2.00 | 10.91 7.34–14.47 6.38–15.44 | 11.00 | 87% |
| Total shots | 18.51 14.81–22.22 13.78–23.25 | 24.00 | 8.33 4.95–11.71 4.02–12.64 | 4.00 | 26.84 19.76–33.92 17.80–35.89 | 28.00 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 13.41 10.89–15.92 10.03–16.79 | 13.00 | 5.34 3.04–7.64 2.24–8.44 | 3.00 | 18.75 13.93–23.56 12.27–25.23 | 16.00 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 4.63 3.05–6.22 2.51–6.75 | 5.00 | 2.20 0.78–3.61 0.30–4.10 | 1.00 | 6.83 3.83–9.83 2.81–10.85 | 6.00 | 77% |
| Corners | 7.34 5.13–9.55 4.54–10.14 | 4.00 | 3.03 1.05–5.01 0.51–5.55 | 1.00 | 10.37 6.19–14.55 5.05–15.69 | 5.00 | 89% |
| Possession % | 68.41 62.09–74.72 60.49–76.32 | 72.00 | 31.74 25.43–38.06 23.83–39.66 | 28.00 | — | — | 99% |
| Passes | 680 615–746 598–763 | 794 | 306 241–371 224–388 | 308 | 986 857–1116 821–1152 | 1102 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 89.21 85.00–93.43 83.70–94.73 | — | 76.47 71.96–80.98 70.63–82.31 | — | — | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 8.44 5.58–11.29 4.69–12.18 | 10.00 | 11.08 8.14–14.03 7.22–14.95 | 12.00 | 19.52 13.72–25.32 11.91–27.12 | 22.00 | 24% 69% |
| Offsides | 2.17 0.96–3.38 0.62–3.73 | 2.00 | 2.07 0.91–3.24 0.58–3.57 | 8.00 | 4.25 1.87–6.62 1.20–7.30 | 10.00 | 42% 20% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.29 0.23–2.35 0.00–2.62 | 1.00 | 2.10 0.98–3.23 0.69–3.52 | 1.00 | 3.40 1.22–5.57 0.66–6.13 | 2.00 | 23% 21% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.64 1.22–4.05 0.83–4.44 | 1.00 | 4.29 2.74–5.85 2.31–6.28 | 4.00 | 6.93 3.96–9.90 3.14–10.72 | 5.00 | 20% 67% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.