UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
74%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.751.003.76safe1.78–3.720.15–1.861.93–5.58safer1.53–3.970.00–2.091.45–6.06
Shots on target
84%
homeawaytotalprediction7.333.5810.91safe5.46–9.191.84–5.337.30–14.51safer4.97–9.681.38–5.796.35–15.47
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction19.058.7427.79safe15.13–22.985.18–12.3020.31–35.28safer14.04–24.074.22–13.2618.26–37.33
Shots in box
93%
homeawaytotalprediction12.435.8318.26safe9.49–15.373.15–8.5112.64–23.88safer8.66–16.202.41–9.2511.07–25.45
Blocked shots
82%
homeawaytotalprediction5.262.247.50safe3.38–7.140.59–3.903.97–11.04safer2.83–7.680.10–4.392.93–12.07
Corners
85%
homeawaytotalprediction6.913.1710.08safe4.70–9.131.17–5.175.87–14.29safer4.13–9.700.63–5.704.76–15.40
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction65.6834.55safe58.89–72.4727.76–41.33safer57.22–74.1426.09–43.00
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction6893351025safe622–756269–402891–1158safer604–775252–419855–1194
Pass accuracy %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction82.2674.26safe78.23–86.2869.93–78.58safer76.93–87.5868.63–79.89
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3010.9722.27safe8.46–14.148.03–13.9216.49–28.05safer7.70–14.897.28–14.6614.98–29.56
Offsides
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.512.003.51safe0.35–2.670.91–3.091.26–5.76safer0.05–2.970.62–3.380.67–6.35
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.472.053.52safe0.42–2.520.92–3.181.34–5.70safer0.16–2.790.63–3.470.79–6.26
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
13%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction2.274.666.93safe0.83–3.703.11–6.223.94–9.92safer0.45–4.092.68–6.643.13–10.74
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.75 1.78–3.72 1.53–3.97 | 1.00 0.15–1.86 0.00–2.09 | 3.76 1.93–5.58 1.45–6.06 | 74% 15% |
| Shots on target | 7.33 5.46–9.19 4.97–9.68 | 3.58 1.84–5.33 1.38–5.79 | 10.91 7.30–14.51 6.35–15.47 | 84% |
| Total shots | 19.05 15.13–22.98 14.04–24.07 | 8.74 5.18–12.30 4.22–13.26 | 27.79 20.31–35.28 18.26–37.33 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 12.43 9.49–15.37 8.66–16.20 | 5.83 3.15–8.51 2.41–9.25 | 18.26 12.64–23.88 11.07–25.45 | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 5.26 3.38–7.14 2.83–7.68 | 2.24 0.59–3.90 0.10–4.39 | 7.50 3.97–11.04 2.93–12.07 | 82% |
| Corners | 6.91 4.70–9.13 4.13–9.70 | 3.17 1.17–5.17 0.63–5.70 | 10.08 5.87–14.29 4.76–15.40 | 85% |
| Possession % | 65.68 58.89–72.47 57.22–74.14 | 34.55 27.76–41.33 26.09–43.00 | — | 96% |
| Passes | 689 622–756 604–775 | 335 269–402 252–419 | 1025 891–1158 855–1194 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.26 78.23–86.28 76.93–87.58 | 74.26 69.93–78.58 68.63–79.89 | — | 83% 14% |
| Fouls | 11.30 8.46–14.14 7.70–14.89 | 10.97 8.03–13.92 7.28–14.66 | 22.27 16.49–28.05 14.98–29.56 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.51 0.35–2.67 0.05–2.97 | 2.00 0.91–3.09 0.62–3.38 | 3.51 1.26–5.76 0.67–6.35 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 0.42–2.52 0.16–2.79 | 2.05 0.92–3.18 0.63–3.47 | 3.52 1.34–5.70 0.79–6.26 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.27 0.83–3.70 0.45–4.09 | 4.66 3.11–6.22 2.68–6.64 | 6.93 3.94–9.92 3.13–10.74 | 13% 77% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.