UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Rade Obrenovic
Goals
89%
homeawaytotalprediction3.750.794.54safe2.79–4.710.00–1.652.72–6.36safer2.53–4.970.00–1.902.21–6.87actual5.000.005.00
Shots on target
98%
homeawaytotalprediction10.422.5913.01safe8.57–12.280.88–4.309.45–16.58safer8.07–12.780.41–4.778.48–17.54actual12.000.0012.00
Total shots
100%
homeawaytotalprediction24.596.0230.60safe20.88–28.292.64–9.3923.52–37.68safer19.85–29.321.71–10.3221.56–39.65actual25.003.0028.00
Shots in box
100%
homeawaytotalprediction16.414.2920.70safe13.89–18.921.99–6.6015.89–25.52safer13.03–19.791.20–7.3914.22–27.18actual11.002.0013.00
Blocked shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction6.081.697.78safe4.50–7.670.28–3.114.78–10.78safer3.96–8.200.00–3.603.76–11.80actual8.000.008.00
Corners
97%
homeawaytotalprediction8.862.3411.20safe6.65–11.060.36–4.327.01–15.38safer6.05–11.660.00–4.865.88–16.51actual6.003.009.00
Possession %
98%
homeawayprediction66.2133.65safe59.90–72.5327.33–39.97safer58.30–74.1325.73–41.56actual66.0034.00
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction6913521044safe626–757288–417914–1174safer608–774270–435879–1209actual6993561055
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction90.2577.81safe86.03–94.4673.30–82.31safer84.73–95.7671.97–83.64
Fouls
57%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction9.177.9017.07safe6.32–12.034.96–10.8511.27–22.88safer5.43–12.914.04–11.769.47–24.68actual5.008.0013.00
Offsides
53%
22%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.941.283.22safe0.73–3.150.12–2.450.85–5.59safer0.38–3.490.00–2.780.17–6.27actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.763.29safe0.47–2.580.64–2.881.11–5.47safer0.20–2.860.35–3.170.55–6.03actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.100.15safe0.00–0.200.00–0.300.00–0.49safer0.00–0.350.00–0.440.00–0.79actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
84%
homeawaytotalprediction1.945.046.98safe0.52–3.353.49–6.604.01–9.95safer0.14–3.743.06–7.033.19–10.77actual0.006.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.75 2.79–4.71 2.53–4.97 | 5.00 | 0.79 0.00–1.65 0.00–1.90 | 0.00 | 4.54 2.72–6.36 2.21–6.87 | 5.00 | 89% |
| Shots on target | 10.42 8.57–12.28 8.07–12.78 | 12.00 | 2.59 0.88–4.30 0.41–4.77 | 0.00 | 13.01 9.45–16.58 8.48–17.54 | 12.00 | 98% |
| Total shots | 24.59 20.88–28.29 19.85–29.32 | 25.00 | 6.02 2.64–9.39 1.71–10.32 | 3.00 | 30.60 23.52–37.68 21.56–39.65 | 28.00 | 100% |
| Shots in box | 16.41 13.89–18.92 13.03–19.79 | 11.00 | 4.29 1.99–6.60 1.20–7.39 | 2.00 | 20.70 15.89–25.52 14.22–27.18 | 13.00 | 100% |
| Blocked shots | 6.08 4.50–7.67 3.96–8.20 | 8.00 | 1.69 0.28–3.11 0.00–3.60 | 0.00 | 7.78 4.78–10.78 3.76–11.80 | 8.00 | 93% |
| Corners | 8.86 6.65–11.06 6.05–11.66 | 6.00 | 2.34 0.36–4.32 0.00–4.86 | 3.00 | 11.20 7.01–15.38 5.88–16.51 | 9.00 | 97% |
| Possession % | 66.21 59.90–72.53 58.30–74.13 | 66.00 | 33.65 27.33–39.97 25.73–41.56 | 34.00 | — | — | 98% |
| Passes | 691 626–757 608–774 | 699 | 352 288–417 270–435 | 356 | 1044 914–1174 879–1209 | 1055 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 90.25 86.03–94.46 84.73–95.76 | — | 77.81 73.30–82.31 71.97–83.64 | — | — | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 9.17 6.32–12.03 5.43–12.91 | 5.00 | 7.90 4.96–10.85 4.04–11.76 | 8.00 | 17.07 11.27–22.88 9.47–24.68 | 13.00 | 57% 33% |
| Offsides | 1.94 0.73–3.15 0.38–3.49 | 3.00 | 1.28 0.12–2.45 0.00–2.78 | 1.00 | 3.22 0.85–5.59 0.17–6.27 | 4.00 | 53% 22% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.47–2.58 0.20–2.86 | 0.00 | 1.76 0.64–2.88 0.35–3.17 | 1.00 | 3.29 1.11–5.47 0.55–6.03 | 1.00 | 34% 23% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 1.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 1.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 1.94 0.52–3.35 0.14–3.74 | 0.00 | 5.04 3.49–6.60 3.06–7.03 | 6.00 | 6.98 4.01–9.95 3.19–10.77 | 6.00 | 84% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.