UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 7·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 7·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
25%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.412.86safe0.48–2.410.56–2.271.04–4.68safer0.23–2.670.33–2.500.56–5.16
Shots on target
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.884.769.65safe3.02–6.753.02–6.516.04–13.25safer2.53–7.232.56–6.975.09–14.21
Total shots
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1512.1726.32safe10.23–18.088.60–15.7318.83–33.81safer9.14–19.177.65–16.6916.78–35.86
Shots in box
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.828.6717.50safe5.88–11.775.99–11.3511.87–23.12safer5.05–12.605.25–12.0910.31–24.69
Blocked shots
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.293.427.70safe2.40–6.171.77–5.074.17–11.24safer1.86–6.711.27–5.563.13–12.27
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.964.799.75safe2.74–7.172.79–6.795.54–13.96safer2.17–7.742.26–7.334.43–15.07
Possession %
56%
40%
homeawayprediction52.2448.86safe45.45–59.0342.07–55.64safer43.78–60.7040.40–57.31
Passes
65%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction505456961safe437–572390–523827–1095safer419–590372–540792–1130
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction72.0976.12safe68.06–76.1271.80–80.45safer66.77–77.4170.49–81.76
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5312.1624.69safe9.70–15.379.21–15.1018.91–30.47safer8.94–16.138.46–15.8517.40–31.98
Offsides
16%
16%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.292.764.05safe0.13–2.451.67–3.851.79–6.30safer0.00–2.751.38–4.141.21–6.89
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.762.093.85safe0.71–2.810.97–3.221.67–6.03safer0.44–3.070.67–3.511.12–6.59
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.993.366.35safe1.55–4.421.81–4.923.36–9.34safer1.16–4.811.38–5.342.55–10.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.48–2.41 0.23–2.67 | 1.41 0.56–2.27 0.33–2.50 | 2.86 1.04–4.68 0.56–5.16 | 38% 25% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.88 3.02–6.75 2.53–7.23 | 4.76 3.02–6.51 2.56–6.97 | 9.65 6.04–13.25 5.09–14.21 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Total shots | 14.15 10.23–18.08 9.14–19.17 | 12.17 8.60–15.73 7.65–16.69 | 26.32 18.83–33.81 16.78–35.86 | 61% 31% |
| Shots in box | 8.82 5.88–11.77 5.05–12.60 | 8.67 5.99–11.35 5.25–12.09 | 17.50 11.87–23.12 10.31–24.69 | 47% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 4.29 2.40–6.17 1.86–6.71 | 3.42 1.77–5.07 1.27–5.56 | 7.70 4.17–11.24 3.13–12.27 | 55% 14% 31% |
| Corners | 4.96 2.74–7.17 2.17–7.74 | 4.79 2.79–6.79 2.26–7.33 | 9.75 5.54–13.96 4.43–15.07 | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 52.24 45.45–59.03 43.78–60.70 | 48.86 42.07–55.64 40.40–57.31 | — | 56% 40% |
| Passes | 505 437–572 419–590 | 456 390–523 372–540 | 961 827–1095 792–1130 | 65% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.09 68.06–76.12 66.77–77.41 | 76.12 71.80–80.45 70.49–81.76 | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 12.53 9.70–15.37 8.94–16.13 | 12.16 9.21–15.10 8.46–15.85 | 24.69 18.91–30.47 17.40–31.98 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.29 0.13–2.45 0.00–2.75 | 2.76 1.67–3.85 1.38–4.14 | 4.05 1.79–6.30 1.21–6.89 | 16% 16% 68% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.81 0.44–3.07 | 2.09 0.97–3.22 0.67–3.51 | 3.85 1.67–6.03 1.12–6.59 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.99 1.55–4.42 1.16–4.81 | 3.36 1.81–4.92 1.38–5.34 | 6.35 3.36–9.34 2.55–10.16 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.