UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.463.22safe0.79–2.730.60–2.311.39–5.04safer0.54–2.980.38–2.540.91–5.52
Shots on target
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.744.179.91safe3.88–7.602.43–5.926.31–13.52safer3.39–8.091.97–6.385.35–14.47
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7411.9127.65safe11.82–19.678.34–15.4720.16–35.13safer10.72–20.767.38–16.4318.11–37.19
Shots in box
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction10.197.3017.49safe7.24–13.134.62–9.9811.87–23.11safer6.41–13.963.88–10.7210.30–24.68
Blocked shots
62%
13%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.393.037.42safe2.51–6.271.38–4.683.88–10.95safer1.96–6.810.88–5.182.85–11.99
Corners
62%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.774.3310.09safe3.55–7.982.33–6.335.88–14.30safer2.98–8.551.79–6.864.77–15.41
Possession %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction55.0345.08safe48.24–61.8238.30–51.87safer46.57–63.4936.63–53.54
Passes
80%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction549447996safe482–616380–513862–1130safer464–635363–531826–1165
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction71.6271.14safe67.59–75.6566.81–75.46safer66.30–76.9465.50–76.77
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5412.2722.80safe7.70–13.389.32–15.2117.02–28.59safer6.94–14.138.57–15.9615.52–30.09
Offsides
18%
16%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.934.48safe0.39–2.711.84–4.032.23–6.73safer0.09–3.011.55–4.311.64–7.32
Yellow cards
29%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.582.123.70safe0.53–2.630.99–3.251.52–5.88safer0.26–2.900.70–3.540.97–6.44
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
31%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.023.796.81safe1.59–4.462.23–5.343.82–9.80safer1.20–4.851.80–5.773.00–10.61
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.79–2.73 0.54–2.98 | 1.46 0.60–2.31 0.38–2.54 | 3.22 1.39–5.04 0.91–5.52 | 45% 23% 32% |
| Shots on target | 5.74 3.88–7.60 3.39–8.09 | 4.17 2.43–5.92 1.97–6.38 | 9.91 6.31–13.52 5.35–14.47 | 63% 25% |
| Total shots | 15.74 11.82–19.67 10.72–20.76 | 11.91 8.34–15.47 7.38–16.43 | 27.65 20.16–35.13 18.11–37.19 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 10.19 7.24–13.13 6.41–13.96 | 7.30 4.62–9.98 3.88–10.72 | 17.49 11.87–23.11 10.30–24.68 | 72% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 4.39 2.51–6.27 1.96–6.81 | 3.03 1.38–4.68 0.88–5.18 | 7.42 3.88–10.95 2.85–11.99 | 62% 13% 25% |
| Corners | 5.77 3.55–7.98 2.98–8.55 | 4.33 2.33–6.33 1.79–6.86 | 10.09 5.88–14.30 4.77–15.41 | 62% 27% |
| Possession % | 55.03 48.24–61.82 46.57–63.49 | 45.08 38.30–51.87 36.63–53.54 | — | 70% 26% |
| Passes | 549 482–616 464–635 | 447 380–513 363–531 | 996 862–1130 826–1165 | 80% 19% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.62 67.59–75.65 66.30–76.94 | 71.14 66.81–75.46 65.50–76.77 | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 10.54 7.70–13.38 6.94–14.13 | 12.27 9.32–15.21 8.57–15.96 | 22.80 17.02–28.59 15.52–30.09 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.55 0.39–2.71 0.09–3.01 | 2.93 1.84–4.03 1.55–4.31 | 4.48 2.23–6.73 1.64–7.32 | 18% 16% 66% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.53–2.63 0.26–2.90 | 2.12 0.99–3.25 0.70–3.54 | 3.70 1.52–5.88 0.97–6.44 | 29% 21% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.02 1.59–4.46 1.20–4.85 | 3.79 2.23–5.34 1.80–5.77 | 6.81 3.82–9.80 3.00–10.61 | 31% 15% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+