UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.643.38safe0.76–2.700.79–2.501.55–5.20safer0.51–2.950.56–2.731.07–5.68
Shots on target
44%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.335.3110.64safe3.46–7.193.57–7.067.04–14.25safer2.98–7.683.11–7.526.08–15.20
Total shots
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7114.0529.76safe11.78–19.6310.49–17.6222.27–37.25safer10.69–20.729.53–18.5820.22–39.30
Shots in box
52%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction9.929.1619.09safe6.98–12.876.48–11.8413.46–24.71safer6.15–13.705.74–12.5811.90–26.28
Blocked shots
43%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.843.857.70safe1.96–5.732.20–5.514.16–11.23safer1.42–6.271.71–6.003.13–12.27
Corners
47%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.295.0510.35safe3.08–7.513.05–7.056.13–14.56safer2.51–8.082.52–7.585.03–15.67
Possession %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction47.0453.38safe40.25–53.8346.60–60.17safer38.58–55.5044.93–61.84
Passes
28%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction451519970safe384–518453–586837–1104safer366–536435–603801–1140
Pass accuracy %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction72.1579.34safe68.12–76.1875.02–83.67safer66.82–77.4773.71–84.98
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8112.1122.92safe7.97–13.649.17–15.0617.14–28.70safer7.21–14.408.42–15.8115.63–30.21
Offsides
42%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.692.665.35safe1.53–3.851.57–3.753.10–7.61safer1.23–4.151.28–4.042.51–8.20
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.782.193.97safe0.73–2.831.06–3.321.79–6.15safer0.47–3.100.77–3.611.23–6.71
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
38%
15%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.273.566.83safe1.84–4.712.00–5.123.84–9.82safer1.45–5.101.58–5.543.03–10.64
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.76–2.70 0.51–2.95 | 1.64 0.79–2.50 0.56–2.73 | 3.38 1.55–5.20 1.07–5.68 | 40% 23% 37% |
| Shots on target | 5.33 3.46–7.19 2.98–7.68 | 5.31 3.57–7.06 3.11–7.52 | 10.64 7.04–14.25 6.08–15.20 | 44% 44% |
| Total shots | 15.71 11.78–19.63 10.69–20.72 | 14.05 10.49–17.62 9.53–18.58 | 29.76 22.27–37.25 20.22–39.30 | 58% 35% |
| Shots in box | 9.92 6.98–12.87 6.15–13.70 | 9.16 6.48–11.84 5.74–12.58 | 19.09 13.46–24.71 11.90–26.28 | 52% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.84 1.96–5.73 1.42–6.27 | 3.85 2.20–5.51 1.71–6.00 | 7.70 4.16–11.23 3.13–12.27 | 43% 15% 43% |
| Corners | 5.29 3.08–7.51 2.51–8.08 | 5.05 3.05–7.05 2.52–7.58 | 10.35 6.13–14.56 5.03–15.67 | 47% 41% |
| Possession % | 47.04 40.25–53.83 38.58–55.50 | 53.38 46.60–60.17 44.93–61.84 | — | 33% 62% |
| Passes | 451 384–518 366–536 | 519 453–586 435–603 | 970 837–1104 801–1140 | 28% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.15 68.12–76.18 66.82–77.47 | 79.34 75.02–83.67 73.71–84.98 | — | 16% 81% |
| Fouls | 10.81 7.97–13.64 7.21–14.40 | 12.11 9.17–15.06 8.42–15.81 | 22.92 17.14–28.70 15.63–30.21 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 2.69 1.53–3.85 1.23–4.15 | 2.66 1.57–3.75 1.28–4.04 | 5.35 3.10–7.61 2.51–8.20 | 42% 18% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.73–2.83 0.47–3.10 | 2.19 1.06–3.32 0.77–3.61 | 3.97 1.79–6.15 1.23–6.71 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.27 1.84–4.71 1.45–5.10 | 3.56 2.00–5.12 1.58–5.54 | 6.83 3.84–9.82 3.03–10.64 | 38% 15% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.