UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
25%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.482.86safe0.41–2.340.63–2.331.03–4.68safer0.16–2.600.40–2.560.55–5.16
Shots on target
33%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.775.6710.44safe2.91–6.633.93–7.416.84–14.05safer2.42–7.123.46–7.885.88–15.00
Total shots
39%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1014.0927.18safe9.17–17.0210.52–17.6519.69–34.67safer8.08–18.119.56–18.6117.64–36.72
Shots in box
32%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction7.969.3917.35safe5.01–10.906.71–12.0711.72–22.97safer4.18–11.735.97–12.8110.16–24.54
Blocked shots
38%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.333.616.94safe1.45–5.211.96–5.263.41–10.48safer0.91–5.761.47–5.762.37–11.51
Corners
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.154.629.77safe2.94–7.372.62–6.625.56–13.98safer2.37–7.942.08–7.154.45–15.09
Possession %
46%
50%
homeawayprediction49.0849.88safe42.29–55.8743.10–56.67safer40.62–57.5441.42–58.34
Passes
49%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction5045081012safe437–571442–574879–1146safer419–590424–592843–1182
Pass accuracy %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction74.6177.03safe70.58–78.6472.71–81.35safer69.28–79.9371.40–82.66
Fouls
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7910.1621.95safe8.96–14.637.21–13.1016.17–27.73safer8.20–15.396.46–13.8514.66–29.24
Offsides
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.943.75safe0.65–2.970.85–3.041.50–6.01safer0.35–3.270.56–3.320.91–6.60
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.883.40safe0.46–2.560.76–3.011.22–5.58safer0.20–2.830.46–3.300.66–6.13
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.723.136.85safe2.28–5.151.57–4.693.85–9.84safer1.89–5.541.15–5.113.04–10.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.41–2.34 0.16–2.60 | 1.48 0.63–2.33 0.40–2.56 | 2.86 1.03–4.68 0.55–5.16 | 35% 25% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.77 2.91–6.63 2.42–7.12 | 5.67 3.93–7.41 3.46–7.88 | 10.44 6.84–14.05 5.88–15.00 | 33% 55% |
| Total shots | 13.10 9.17–17.02 8.08–18.11 | 14.09 10.52–17.65 9.56–18.61 | 27.18 19.69–34.67 17.64–36.72 | 39% 54% |
| Shots in box | 7.96 5.01–10.90 4.18–11.73 | 9.39 6.71–12.07 5.97–12.81 | 17.35 11.72–22.97 10.16–24.54 | 32% 59% |
| Blocked shots | 3.33 1.45–5.21 0.91–5.76 | 3.61 1.96–5.26 1.47–5.76 | 6.94 3.41–10.48 2.37–11.51 | 38% 15% 46% |
| Corners | 5.15 2.94–7.37 2.37–7.94 | 4.62 2.62–6.62 2.08–7.15 | 9.77 5.56–13.98 4.45–15.09 | 50% 37% |
| Possession % | 49.08 42.29–55.87 40.62–57.54 | 49.88 43.10–56.67 41.42–58.34 | — | 46% 50% |
| Passes | 504 437–571 419–590 | 508 442–574 424–592 | 1012 879–1146 843–1182 | 49% 51% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.61 70.58–78.64 69.28–79.93 | 77.03 72.71–81.35 71.40–82.66 | — | 35% 60% |
| Fouls | 11.79 8.96–14.63 8.20–15.39 | 10.16 7.21–13.10 6.46–13.85 | 21.95 16.17–27.73 14.66–29.24 | 60% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.65–2.97 0.35–3.27 | 1.94 0.85–3.04 0.56–3.32 | 3.75 1.50–6.01 0.91–6.60 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.46–2.56 0.20–2.83 | 1.88 0.76–3.01 0.46–3.30 | 3.40 1.22–5.58 0.66–6.13 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.72 2.28–5.15 1.89–5.54 | 3.13 1.57–4.69 1.15–5.11 | 6.85 3.85–9.84 3.04–10.65 | 51% 15% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.