UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.923.30safe0.41–2.351.06–2.771.48–5.12safer0.16–2.600.83–3.001.00–5.60
Shots on target
29%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction4.135.319.44safe2.27–5.993.56–7.055.83–13.04safer1.78–6.483.10–7.524.88–14.00
Total shots
20%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7115.6727.38safe7.78–15.6312.10–19.2319.89–34.86safer6.69–16.7311.14–20.1917.84–36.91
Shots in box
18%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction7.0210.2917.31safe4.07–9.967.61–12.9711.69–22.93safer3.25–10.796.87–13.7110.12–24.50
Blocked shots
25%
13%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.084.387.46safe1.19–4.962.73–6.043.93–11.00safer0.65–5.502.24–6.532.89–12.03
Corners
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction4.115.519.62safe1.90–6.323.51–7.515.40–13.83safer1.32–6.902.97–8.044.30–14.94
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.2949.82safe42.50–56.0843.03–56.60safer40.83–57.7541.36–58.28
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction486474960safe419–553408–541827–1094safer401–571390–558791–1130
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction72.5377.96safe68.50–76.5573.63–82.28safer67.20–77.8572.33–83.59
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction9.9211.1021.02safe7.08–12.758.16–14.0515.24–26.80safer6.32–13.517.41–14.8013.73–28.31
Offsides
42%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.853.83safe0.82–3.140.76–2.951.58–6.09safer0.52–3.440.47–3.230.99–6.67
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.722.033.74safe0.67–2.760.90–3.161.56–5.92safer0.40–3.030.61–3.451.01–6.48
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.912.706.61safe2.48–5.351.14–4.263.62–9.61safer2.09–5.740.72–4.682.81–10.42
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.41–2.35 0.16–2.60 | 1.92 1.06–2.77 0.83–3.00 | 3.30 1.48–5.12 1.00–5.60 | 28% 22% 50% |
| Shots on target | 4.13 2.27–5.99 1.78–6.48 | 5.31 3.56–7.05 3.10–7.52 | 9.44 5.83–13.04 4.88–14.00 | 29% 59% |
| Total shots | 11.71 7.78–15.63 6.69–16.73 | 15.67 12.10–19.23 11.14–20.19 | 27.38 19.89–34.86 17.84–36.91 | 20% 75% |
| Shots in box | 7.02 4.07–9.96 3.25–10.79 | 10.29 7.61–12.97 6.87–13.71 | 17.31 11.69–22.93 10.12–24.50 | 18% 75% |
| Blocked shots | 3.08 1.19–4.96 0.65–5.50 | 4.38 2.73–6.04 2.24–6.53 | 7.46 3.93–11.00 2.89–12.03 | 25% 13% 61% |
| Corners | 4.11 1.90–6.32 1.32–6.90 | 5.51 3.51–7.51 2.97–8.04 | 9.62 5.40–13.83 4.30–14.94 | 27% 61% |
| Possession % | 49.29 42.50–56.08 40.83–57.75 | 49.82 43.03–56.60 41.36–58.28 | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 486 419–553 401–571 | 474 408–541 390–558 | 960 827–1094 791–1130 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.53 68.50–76.55 67.20–77.85 | 77.96 73.63–82.28 72.33–83.59 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 9.92 7.08–12.75 6.32–13.51 | 11.10 8.16–14.05 7.41–14.80 | 21.02 15.24–26.80 13.73–28.31 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.82–3.14 0.52–3.44 | 1.85 0.76–2.95 0.47–3.23 | 3.83 1.58–6.09 0.99–6.67 | 42% 21% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.67–2.76 0.40–3.03 | 2.03 0.90–3.16 0.61–3.45 | 3.74 1.56–5.92 1.01–6.48 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.91 2.48–5.35 2.09–5.74 | 2.70 1.14–4.26 0.72–4.68 | 6.61 3.62–9.61 2.81–10.42 | 61% 14% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.