UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.342.85safe0.54–2.480.49–2.201.03–4.68safer0.29–2.730.26–2.420.55–5.16
Shots on target
43%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.714.769.48safe2.85–6.583.02–6.515.87–13.08safer2.36–7.072.56–6.974.92–14.04
Total shots
52%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8313.1126.93safe9.90–17.759.54–16.6719.45–34.42safer8.81–18.858.58–17.6317.40–36.47
Shots in box
53%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction9.518.6618.17safe6.57–12.455.98–11.3412.55–23.80safer5.74–13.285.24–12.0810.98–25.36
Blocked shots
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.213.637.84safe2.33–6.091.98–5.284.31–11.38safer1.78–6.641.49–5.783.27–12.41
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.454.099.54safe3.24–7.662.09–6.095.32–13.75safer2.66–8.241.55–6.624.22–14.86
Possession %
53%
43%
homeawayprediction51.5049.37safe44.71–58.2942.58–56.15safer43.04–59.9640.91–57.82
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction502477978safe435–569410–543845–1112safer416–587393–561809–1148
Pass accuracy %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction74.0674.98safe70.03–78.0970.65–79.30safer68.74–79.3969.34–80.61
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6311.4021.03safe6.79–12.468.46–14.3515.25–26.81safer6.03–13.227.71–15.1013.74–28.32
Offsides
49%
20%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.381.914.28safe1.22–3.540.81–3.002.03–6.54safer0.91–3.840.53–3.291.44–7.13
Yellow cards
26%
20%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.512.233.74safe0.46–2.561.10–3.361.57–5.92safer0.20–2.830.81–3.651.01–6.48
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78
GK saves
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.213.136.34safe1.78–4.651.57–4.693.35–9.33safer1.39–5.041.15–5.112.54–10.15
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 0.54–2.48 0.29–2.73 | 1.34 0.49–2.20 0.26–2.42 | 2.85 1.03–4.68 0.55–5.16 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.71 2.85–6.58 2.36–7.07 | 4.76 3.02–6.51 2.56–6.97 | 9.48 5.87–13.08 4.92–14.04 | 43% 13% 44% |
| Total shots | 13.83 9.90–17.75 8.81–18.85 | 13.11 9.54–16.67 8.58–17.63 | 26.93 19.45–34.42 17.40–36.47 | 52% 41% |
| Shots in box | 9.51 6.57–12.45 5.74–13.28 | 8.66 5.98–11.34 5.24–12.08 | 18.17 12.55–23.80 10.98–25.36 | 53% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 4.21 2.33–6.09 1.78–6.64 | 3.63 1.98–5.28 1.49–5.78 | 7.84 4.31–11.38 3.27–12.41 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Corners | 5.45 3.24–7.66 2.66–8.24 | 4.09 2.09–6.09 1.55–6.62 | 9.54 5.32–13.75 4.22–14.86 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 51.50 44.71–58.29 43.04–59.96 | 49.37 42.58–56.15 40.91–57.82 | — | 53% 43% |
| Passes | 502 435–569 416–587 | 477 410–543 393–561 | 978 845–1112 809–1148 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.06 70.03–78.09 68.74–79.39 | 74.98 70.65–79.30 69.34–80.61 | — | 43% 52% |
| Fouls | 9.63 6.79–12.46 6.03–13.22 | 11.40 8.46–14.35 7.71–15.10 | 21.03 15.25–26.81 13.74–28.32 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 2.38 1.22–3.54 0.91–3.84 | 1.91 0.81–3.00 0.53–3.29 | 4.28 2.03–6.54 1.44–7.13 | 49% 20% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.46–2.56 0.20–2.83 | 2.23 1.10–3.36 0.81–3.65 | 3.74 1.57–5.92 1.01–6.48 | 26% 20% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.21 1.78–4.65 1.39–5.04 | 3.13 1.57–4.69 1.15–5.11 | 6.34 3.35–9.33 2.54–10.15 | 43% 16% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.