UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Sandro Schärer · Switzerland
Goals
61%
21%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.071.063.14safe1.11–3.030.20–1.921.31–4.96safer0.85–3.300.00–2.170.81–5.47actual2.003.005.00
Shots on target
79%
homeawaytotalprediction6.053.119.15safe4.19–7.901.40–4.815.59–12.72safer3.69–8.400.93–5.284.62–13.68actual7.009.0016.00
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction15.609.6725.27safe11.89–19.306.29–13.0518.18–32.35safer10.86–20.335.36–13.9816.22–34.31actual14.0021.0035.00
Shots in box
92%
homeawaytotalprediction12.375.8718.24safe9.85–14.893.57–8.1713.42–23.05safer8.99–15.752.77–8.9711.76–24.72actual10.0015.0025.00
Blocked shots
74%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.012.717.72safe3.42–6.591.30–4.134.72–10.72safer2.89–7.130.81–4.613.70–11.74actual3.007.0010.00
Corners
79%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction6.543.5410.08safe4.33–8.741.56–5.525.89–14.26safer3.74–9.341.02–6.054.76–15.39actual4.005.009.00
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction58.3541.03safe52.03–64.6734.71–47.35safer50.43–66.2633.11–48.94actual64.0036.00
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction591401992safe525–656337–466862–1122safer508–674319–483827–1157actual602337939
Pass accuracy %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction85.8481.20safe81.62–90.0576.69–85.71safer80.32–91.3575.36–87.04actual88.0083.00
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction9.689.6219.30safe6.82–12.536.68–12.5713.50–25.10safer5.94–13.425.76–13.4911.69–26.91actual17.0014.0031.00
Offsides
83%
homeawaytotalprediction3.711.144.85safe2.50–4.920.00–2.302.48–7.22safer2.16–5.270.00–2.631.80–7.90actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
27%
23%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.863.16safe0.24–2.350.74–2.980.98–5.34safer0.00–2.620.45–3.270.42–5.90actual3.003.006.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.090.12safe0.00–0.180.00–0.280.00–0.46safer0.00–0.340.00–0.430.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
19%
14%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.193.785.98safe0.78–3.612.23–5.343.01–8.95safer0.39–4.001.80–5.772.19–9.77actual5.005.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.07 1.11–3.03 0.85–3.30 | 2.00 | 1.06 0.20–1.92 0.00–2.17 | 3.00 | 3.14 1.31–4.96 0.81–5.47 | 5.00 | 61% 21% 19% |
| Shots on target | 6.05 4.19–7.90 3.69–8.40 | 7.00 | 3.11 1.40–4.81 0.93–5.28 | 9.00 | 9.15 5.59–12.72 4.62–13.68 | 16.00 | 79% |
| Total shots | 15.60 11.89–19.30 10.86–20.33 | 14.00 | 9.67 6.29–13.05 5.36–13.98 | 21.00 | 25.27 18.18–32.35 16.22–34.31 | 35.00 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 12.37 9.85–14.89 8.99–15.75 | 10.00 | 5.87 3.57–8.17 2.77–8.97 | 15.00 | 18.24 13.42–23.05 11.76–24.72 | 25.00 | 92% |
| Blocked shots | 5.01 3.42–6.59 2.89–7.13 | 3.00 | 2.71 1.30–4.13 0.81–4.61 | 7.00 | 7.72 4.72–10.72 3.70–11.74 | 10.00 | 74% 15% |
| Corners | 6.54 4.33–8.74 3.74–9.34 | 4.00 | 3.54 1.56–5.52 1.02–6.05 | 5.00 | 10.08 5.89–14.26 4.76–15.39 | 9.00 | 79% 13% |
| Possession % | 58.35 52.03–64.67 50.43–66.26 | 64.00 | 41.03 34.71–47.35 33.11–48.94 | 36.00 | — | — | 85% |
| Passes | 591 525–656 508–674 | 602 | 401 337–466 319–483 | 337 | 992 862–1122 827–1157 | 939 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.84 81.62–90.05 80.32–91.35 | 88.00 | 81.20 76.69–85.71 75.36–87.04 | 83.00 | — | — | 70% 26% |
| Fouls | 9.68 6.82–12.53 5.94–13.42 | 17.00 | 9.62 6.68–12.57 5.76–13.49 | 14.00 | 19.30 13.50–25.10 11.69–26.91 | 31.00 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 3.71 2.50–4.92 2.16–5.27 | 1.00 | 1.14 0.00–2.30 0.00–2.63 | 2.00 | 4.85 2.48–7.22 1.80–7.90 | 3.00 | 83% |
| Yellow cards | 1.29 0.24–2.35 0.00–2.62 | 3.00 | 1.86 0.74–2.98 0.45–3.27 | 3.00 | 3.16 0.98–5.34 0.42–5.90 | 6.00 | 27% 23% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.19 0.78–3.61 0.39–4.00 | 5.00 | 3.78 2.23–5.34 1.80–5.77 | 5.00 | 5.98 3.01–8.95 2.19–9.77 | 10.00 | 19% 14% 67% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.