UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
63%
19%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.251.123.37safe1.28–3.210.27–1.981.55–5.19safer1.03–3.470.04–2.211.07–5.67
Shots on target
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.694.3511.04safe4.83–8.552.60–6.097.43–14.64safer4.34–9.042.14–6.556.48–15.60
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction17.2311.7528.98safe13.30–21.158.19–15.3121.49–36.47safer12.21–22.247.23–16.2719.44–38.52
Shots in box
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction11.967.9319.90safe9.02–14.915.25–10.6114.27–25.52safer8.19–15.744.51–11.3512.71–27.09
Blocked shots
68%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.622.827.43safe2.73–6.501.16–4.473.90–10.97safer2.19–7.040.67–4.962.86–12.00
Corners
79%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction6.803.7210.53safe4.59–9.011.72–5.736.31–14.74safer4.01–9.591.19–6.265.21–15.85
Possession %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction58.9441.18safe52.15–65.7334.39–47.96safer50.48–67.4032.72–49.63
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction5974031000safe530–665336–469866–1134safer512–683319–487831–1169
Pass accuracy %
80%
16%
homeawayprediction77.9470.83safe73.91–81.9766.51–75.16safer72.62–83.2765.20–76.47
Fouls
40%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7711.4422.21safe7.93–13.608.50–14.3916.43–27.99safer7.17–14.367.75–15.1414.92–29.50
Offsides
39%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.933.85safe0.77–3.090.84–3.021.60–6.11safer0.46–3.390.55–3.311.01–6.70
Yellow cards
25%
21%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.342.043.39safe0.29–2.390.92–3.171.21–5.57safer0.03–2.660.62–3.460.65–6.12
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.100.14safe0.00–0.200.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.350.00–0.420.00–0.77
GK saves
24%
13%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.934.317.25safe1.50–4.372.76–5.874.25–10.24safer1.11–4.762.33–6.303.44–11.05
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.25 1.28–3.21 1.03–3.47 | 1.12 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.21 | 3.37 1.55–5.19 1.07–5.67 | 63% 19% 18% |
| Shots on target | 6.69 4.83–8.55 4.34–9.04 | 4.35 2.60–6.09 2.14–6.55 | 11.04 7.43–14.64 6.48–15.60 | 71% 19% |
| Total shots | 17.23 13.30–21.15 12.21–22.24 | 11.75 8.19–15.31 7.23–16.27 | 28.98 21.49–36.47 19.44–38.52 | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 11.96 9.02–14.91 8.19–15.74 | 7.93 5.25–10.61 4.51–11.35 | 19.90 14.27–25.52 12.71–27.09 | 79% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.62 2.73–6.50 2.19–7.04 | 2.82 1.16–4.47 0.67–4.96 | 7.43 3.90–10.97 2.86–12.00 | 68% 20% |
| Corners | 6.80 4.59–9.01 4.01–9.59 | 3.72 1.72–5.73 1.19–6.26 | 10.53 6.31–14.74 5.21–15.85 | 79% 13% |
| Possession % | 58.94 52.15–65.73 50.48–67.40 | 41.18 34.39–47.96 32.72–49.63 | — | 84% 13% |
| Passes | 597 530–665 512–683 | 403 336–469 319–487 | 1000 866–1134 831–1169 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.94 73.91–81.97 72.62–83.27 | 70.83 66.51–75.16 65.20–76.47 | — | 80% 16% |
| Fouls | 10.77 7.93–13.60 7.17–14.36 | 11.44 8.50–14.39 7.75–15.14 | 22.21 16.43–27.99 14.92–29.50 | 40% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.46–3.39 | 1.93 0.84–3.02 0.55–3.31 | 3.85 1.60–6.11 1.01–6.70 | 39% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.34 0.29–2.39 0.03–2.66 | 2.04 0.92–3.17 0.62–3.46 | 3.39 1.21–5.57 0.65–6.12 | 25% 21% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.50–4.37 1.11–4.76 | 4.31 2.76–5.87 2.33–6.30 | 7.25 4.25–10.24 3.44–11.05 | 24% 13% 63% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.