UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.312.96safe0.68–2.620.46–2.171.14–4.78safer0.43–2.870.23–2.390.66–5.26
Shots on target
61%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.764.3810.14safe3.90–7.622.64–6.126.54–13.75safer3.41–8.112.17–6.595.58–14.70
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction16.8011.8628.66safe12.88–20.738.29–15.4221.17–36.14safer11.78–21.827.33–16.3819.12–38.19
Shots in box
70%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction10.667.9318.59safe7.72–13.605.25–10.6112.96–24.21safer6.89–14.434.51–11.3411.40–25.78
Blocked shots
68%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.863.027.88safe2.98–6.751.36–4.674.35–11.42safer2.44–7.290.87–5.163.31–12.45
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.063.859.91safe3.84–8.271.85–5.855.70–14.12safer3.27–8.841.32–6.394.59–15.23
Possession %
80%
16%
homeawayprediction57.6042.09safe50.81–64.3935.30–48.87safer49.14–66.0633.63–50.54
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction551403954safe484–618336–469820–1087safer466–637319–487784–1123
Pass accuracy %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction81.2275.08safe77.20–85.2570.75–79.40safer75.90–86.5569.44–80.71
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1810.8821.06safe7.34–13.017.94–13.8315.28–26.84safer6.58–13.777.19–14.5813.77–28.35
Offsides
20%
16%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction1.733.044.77safe0.57–2.891.94–4.132.51–7.02safer0.27–3.191.66–4.421.92–7.61
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.792.254.04safe0.74–2.841.13–3.381.86–6.22safer0.47–3.100.83–3.671.31–6.78
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
32%
15%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.193.927.11safe1.75–4.622.36–5.484.12–10.10safer1.36–5.011.94–5.903.30–10.91
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 0.68–2.62 0.43–2.87 | 1.31 0.46–2.17 0.23–2.39 | 2.96 1.14–4.78 0.66–5.26 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.76 3.90–7.62 3.41–8.11 | 4.38 2.64–6.12 2.17–6.59 | 10.14 6.54–13.75 5.58–14.70 | 61% 28% |
| Total shots | 16.80 12.88–20.73 11.78–21.82 | 11.86 8.29–15.42 7.33–16.38 | 28.66 21.17–36.14 19.12–38.19 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 10.66 7.72–13.60 6.89–14.43 | 7.93 5.25–10.61 4.51–11.34 | 18.59 12.96–24.21 11.40–25.78 | 70% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 4.86 2.98–6.75 2.44–7.29 | 3.02 1.36–4.67 0.87–5.16 | 7.88 4.35–11.42 3.31–12.45 | 68% 20% |
| Corners | 6.06 3.84–8.27 3.27–8.84 | 3.85 1.85–5.85 1.32–6.39 | 9.91 5.70–14.12 4.59–15.23 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 57.60 50.81–64.39 49.14–66.06 | 42.09 35.30–48.87 33.63–50.54 | — | 80% 16% |
| Passes | 551 484–618 466–637 | 403 336–469 319–487 | 954 820–1087 784–1123 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.22 77.20–85.25 75.90–86.55 | 75.08 70.75–79.40 69.44–80.71 | — | 77% 20% |
| Fouls | 10.18 7.34–13.01 6.58–13.77 | 10.88 7.94–13.83 7.19–14.58 | 21.06 15.28–26.84 13.77–28.35 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.73 0.57–2.89 0.27–3.19 | 3.04 1.94–4.13 1.66–4.42 | 4.77 2.51–7.02 1.92–7.61 | 20% 16% 64% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.74–2.84 0.47–3.10 | 2.25 1.13–3.38 0.83–3.67 | 4.04 1.86–6.22 1.31–6.78 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.19 1.75–4.62 1.36–5.01 | 3.92 2.36–5.48 1.94–5.90 | 7.11 4.12–10.10 3.30–10.91 | 32% 15% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+