UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Serdar Gozubuyuk
Goals
61%
20%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.231.183.41safe1.27–3.190.32–2.041.58–5.23safer1.01–3.450.07–2.281.08–5.74actual4.001.005.00
Shots on target
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.514.0810.59safe4.65–8.362.37–5.797.03–14.15safer4.15–8.861.91–6.266.06–15.12actual6.004.0010.00
Total shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction17.859.9927.84safe14.15–21.556.61–13.3720.76–34.93safer13.12–22.585.68–14.3018.80–36.89actual14.0014.0028.00
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction11.647.1218.76safe9.13–14.164.82–9.4213.94–23.58safer8.26–15.024.02–10.2212.28–25.24actual10.008.0018.00
Blocked shots
74%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.652.447.10safe3.07–6.241.03–3.864.10–10.10safer2.54–6.770.54–4.343.08–11.12actual2.002.004.00
Corners
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.243.709.94safe4.03–8.441.72–5.685.75–14.12safer3.44–9.041.19–6.224.62–15.25actual1.005.006.00
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction54.8944.72safe48.57–61.2038.40–51.04safer46.97–62.8036.80–52.63actual49.0051.00
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction500393893safe435–565328–457763–1023safer417–583311–475728–1058actual5194981017
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction87.6881.92safe83.46–91.8977.41–86.43safer82.16–93.1976.08–87.76
Fouls
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction9.7711.9021.66safe6.91–12.628.95–14.8415.86–27.47safer6.02–13.518.03–15.7614.06–29.27actual9.0010.0019.00
Offsides
23%
17%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.893.014.89safe0.68–3.101.84–4.172.52–7.27safer0.33–3.441.51–4.501.84–7.94actual5.001.006.00
Yellow cards
24%
20%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.402.213.62safe0.35–2.461.09–3.331.44–5.79safer0.08–2.730.80–3.620.88–6.36actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.080.11safe0.00–0.180.00–0.270.00–0.46safer0.00–0.340.00–0.420.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
24%
14%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.804.176.97safe1.39–4.222.62–5.724.00–9.94safer1.00–4.612.18–6.163.18–10.76actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.23 1.27–3.19 1.01–3.45 | 4.00 | 1.18 0.32–2.04 0.07–2.28 | 1.00 | 3.41 1.58–5.23 1.08–5.74 | 5.00 | 61% 20% 19% |
| Shots on target | 6.51 4.65–8.36 4.15–8.86 | 6.00 | 4.08 2.37–5.79 1.91–6.26 | 4.00 | 10.59 7.03–14.15 6.06–15.12 | 10.00 | 72% 18% |
| Total shots | 17.85 14.15–21.55 13.12–22.58 | 14.00 | 9.99 6.61–13.37 5.68–14.30 | 14.00 | 27.84 20.76–34.93 18.80–36.89 | 28.00 | 92% |
| Shots in box | 11.64 9.13–14.16 8.26–15.02 | 10.00 | 7.12 4.82–9.42 4.02–10.22 | 8.00 | 18.76 13.94–23.58 12.28–25.24 | 18.00 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 4.65 3.07–6.24 2.54–6.77 | 2.00 | 2.44 1.03–3.86 0.54–4.34 | 2.00 | 7.10 4.10–10.10 3.08–11.12 | 4.00 | 74% 15% |
| Corners | 6.24 4.03–8.44 3.44–9.04 | 1.00 | 3.70 1.72–5.68 1.19–6.22 | 5.00 | 9.94 5.75–14.12 4.62–15.25 | 6.00 | 74% 17% |
| Possession % | 54.89 48.57–61.20 46.97–62.80 | 49.00 | 44.72 38.40–51.04 36.80–52.63 | 51.00 | — | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 500 435–565 417–583 | 519 | 393 328–457 311–475 | 498 | 893 763–1023 728–1058 | 1017 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.68 83.46–91.89 82.16–93.19 | — | 81.92 77.41–86.43 76.08–87.76 | — | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 9.77 6.91–12.62 6.02–13.51 | 9.00 | 11.90 8.95–14.84 8.03–15.76 | 10.00 | 21.66 15.86–27.47 14.06–29.27 | 19.00 | 29% 64% |
| Offsides | 1.89 0.68–3.10 0.33–3.44 | 5.00 | 3.01 1.84–4.17 1.51–4.50 | 1.00 | 4.89 2.52–7.27 1.84–7.94 | 6.00 | 23% 17% 61% |
| Yellow cards | 1.40 0.35–2.46 0.08–2.73 | 2.00 | 2.21 1.09–3.33 0.80–3.62 | 3.00 | 3.62 1.44–5.79 0.88–6.36 | 5.00 | 24% 20% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.80 1.39–4.22 1.00–4.61 | 3.00 | 4.17 2.62–5.72 2.18–6.16 | 2.00 | 6.97 4.00–9.94 3.18–10.76 | 5.00 | 24% 14% 63% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+