UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
22%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.283.17safe0.92–2.860.42–2.131.34–4.99safer0.67–3.110.20–2.360.86–5.47
Shots on target
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.933.949.86safe4.06–7.792.19–5.686.26–13.47safer3.57–8.281.73–6.145.30–14.42
Total shots
82%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction16.8511.5028.35safe12.92–20.777.94–15.0720.86–35.84safer11.83–21.866.98–16.0318.81–37.89
Shots in box
70%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction10.357.6718.02safe7.41–13.294.99–10.3512.40–23.64safer6.58–14.124.25–11.0910.83–25.21
Blocked shots
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.462.526.98safe2.58–6.350.86–4.173.45–10.52safer2.04–6.890.37–4.662.41–11.55
Corners
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction5.993.519.50safe3.77–8.201.51–5.515.28–13.71safer3.20–8.780.97–6.044.18–14.82
Possession %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction58.8342.30safe52.04–65.6235.52–49.09safer50.37–67.2933.85–50.76
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction506357863safe439–574290–423729–997safer421–592273–441694–1033
Pass accuracy %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction81.4875.07safe77.45–85.5170.75–79.40safer76.16–86.8169.44–80.71
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1913.2426.43safe10.35–16.0310.29–16.1820.65–32.21safer9.60–16.789.55–16.9319.14–33.72
Offsides
14%
14%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction1.613.425.03safe0.45–2.772.33–4.512.78–7.29safer0.15–3.072.04–4.802.19–7.88
Yellow cards
33%
18%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.392.855.23safe1.34–3.441.72–3.973.06–7.41safer1.07–3.701.43–4.272.50–7.97
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.150.25safe0.00–0.270.00–0.330.00–0.60safer0.00–0.420.00–0.470.00–0.88
GK saves
30%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.803.586.39safe1.37–4.242.02–5.143.39–9.38safer0.98–4.631.60–5.562.58–10.19
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.89 0.92–2.86 0.67–3.11 | 1.28 0.42–2.13 0.20–2.36 | 3.17 1.34–4.99 0.86–5.47 | 52% 22% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.93 4.06–7.79 3.57–8.28 | 3.94 2.19–5.68 1.73–6.14 | 9.86 6.26–13.47 5.30–14.42 | 68% 21% |
| Total shots | 16.85 12.92–20.77 11.83–21.86 | 11.50 7.94–15.07 6.98–16.03 | 28.35 20.86–35.84 18.81–37.89 | 82% 14% |
| Shots in box | 10.35 7.41–13.29 6.58–14.12 | 7.67 4.99–10.35 4.25–11.09 | 18.02 12.40–23.64 10.83–25.21 | 70% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 4.46 2.58–6.35 2.04–6.89 | 2.52 0.86–4.17 0.37–4.66 | 6.98 3.45–10.52 2.41–11.55 | 71% 17% |
| Corners | 5.99 3.77–8.20 3.20–8.78 | 3.51 1.51–5.51 0.97–6.04 | 9.50 5.28–13.71 4.18–14.82 | 74% 16% |
| Possession % | 58.83 52.04–65.62 50.37–67.29 | 42.30 35.52–49.09 33.85–50.76 | — | 82% 15% |
| Passes | 506 439–574 421–592 | 357 290–423 273–441 | 863 729–997 694–1033 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.48 77.45–85.51 76.16–86.81 | 75.07 70.75–79.40 69.44–80.71 | — | 78% 19% |
| Fouls | 13.19 10.35–16.03 9.60–16.78 | 13.24 10.29–16.18 9.55–16.93 | 26.43 20.65–32.21 19.14–33.72 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.07 | 3.42 2.33–4.51 2.04–4.80 | 5.03 2.78–7.29 2.19–7.88 | 14% 14% 72% |
| Yellow cards | 2.39 1.34–3.44 1.07–3.70 | 2.85 1.72–3.97 1.43–4.27 | 5.23 3.06–7.41 2.50–7.97 | 33% 18% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.80 1.37–4.24 0.98–4.63 | 3.58 2.02–5.14 1.60–5.56 | 6.39 3.39–9.38 2.58–10.19 | 30% 15% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.