UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.503.02safe0.56–2.490.64–2.351.20–4.84safer0.30–2.740.41–2.580.72–5.32
Shots on target
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.864.789.64safe3.00–6.733.04–6.526.04–13.25safer2.51–7.222.57–6.995.08–14.20
Total shots
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4612.8627.31safe10.53–18.389.30–16.4219.83–34.80safer9.44–19.478.34–17.3817.78–36.85
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction9.928.3518.28safe6.98–12.865.67–11.0412.65–23.90safer6.15–13.694.94–11.7711.09–25.47
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.973.587.55safe2.09–5.851.92–5.234.01–11.08safer1.55–6.401.43–5.722.98–12.12
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.494.7510.24safe3.28–7.702.75–6.756.03–14.46safer2.70–8.282.22–7.294.92–15.56
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction45.4955.04safe38.70–52.2848.25–61.82safer37.03–53.9546.58–63.49
Passes
23%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction444533978safe377–512467–600844–1112safer359–530449–617809–1147
Pass accuracy %
16%
80%
homeawayprediction78.0485.15safe74.01–82.0780.82–89.47safer72.72–83.3679.51–90.78
Fouls
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction10.909.8220.71safe8.06–13.736.87–12.7614.93–26.50safer7.30–14.496.12–13.5113.43–28.00
Offsides
41%
19%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.352.344.69safe1.19–3.511.25–3.432.43–6.94safer0.89–3.810.96–3.721.84–7.53
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.673.21safe0.50–2.590.54–2.801.04–5.39safer0.23–2.860.25–3.090.48–5.95
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
45%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.102.906.01safe1.67–4.541.35–4.463.01–9.00safer1.28–4.920.92–4.892.20–9.81
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.56–2.49 0.30–2.74 | 1.50 0.64–2.35 0.41–2.58 | 3.02 1.20–4.84 0.72–5.32 | 39% 24% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.86 3.00–6.73 2.51–7.22 | 4.78 3.04–6.52 2.57–6.99 | 9.64 6.04–13.25 5.08–14.20 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Total shots | 14.46 10.53–18.38 9.44–19.47 | 12.86 9.30–16.42 8.34–17.38 | 27.31 19.83–34.80 17.78–36.85 | 58% 34% |
| Shots in box | 9.92 6.98–12.86 6.15–13.69 | 8.35 5.67–11.04 4.94–11.77 | 18.28 12.65–23.90 11.09–25.47 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 3.97 2.09–5.85 1.55–6.40 | 3.58 1.92–5.23 1.43–5.72 | 7.55 4.01–11.08 2.98–12.12 | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 5.49 3.28–7.70 2.70–8.28 | 4.75 2.75–6.75 2.22–7.29 | 10.24 6.03–14.46 4.92–15.56 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 45.49 38.70–52.28 37.03–53.95 | 55.04 48.25–61.82 46.58–63.49 | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 444 377–512 359–530 | 533 467–600 449–617 | 978 844–1112 809–1147 | 23% 77% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.04 74.01–82.07 72.72–83.36 | 85.15 80.82–89.47 79.51–90.78 | — | 16% 80% |
| Fouls | 10.90 8.06–13.73 7.30–14.49 | 9.82 6.87–12.76 6.12–13.51 | 20.71 14.93–26.50 13.43–28.00 | 55% 36% |
| Offsides | 2.35 1.19–3.51 0.89–3.81 | 2.34 1.25–3.43 0.96–3.72 | 4.69 2.43–6.94 1.84–7.53 | 41% 19% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.59 0.23–2.86 | 1.67 0.54–2.80 0.25–3.09 | 3.21 1.04–5.39 0.48–5.95 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.10 1.67–4.54 1.28–4.92 | 2.90 1.35–4.46 0.92–4.89 | 6.01 3.01–9.00 2.20–9.81 | 45% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.