UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.092.86safe0.81–2.750.23–1.941.04–4.69safer0.56–3.000.00–2.170.56–5.17
Shots on target
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.314.099.40safe3.45–7.182.35–5.835.80–13.01safer2.96–7.671.88–6.304.84–13.96
Total shots
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5511.2225.77safe10.62–18.477.66–14.7818.28–33.26safer9.53–19.566.70–15.7416.23–35.31
Shots in box
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction10.917.0217.93safe7.97–13.854.34–9.7012.31–23.56safer7.14–14.683.61–10.4410.74–25.12
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.153.097.24safe2.27–6.031.43–4.743.70–10.77safer1.72–6.570.94–5.232.67–11.81
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.274.0910.37safe4.06–8.492.09–6.096.16–14.58safer3.49–9.061.56–6.635.05–15.69
Possession %
47%
49%
homeawayprediction49.8850.29safe43.09–56.6743.51–57.08safer41.42–58.3441.84–58.75
Passes
49%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction487490978safe420–555424–557844–1111safer402–573406–574808–1147
Pass accuracy %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction74.0174.65safe69.98–78.0470.33–78.97safer68.69–79.3369.02–80.28
Fouls
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction11.219.9321.14safe8.37–14.056.98–12.8715.36–26.92safer7.62–14.816.23–13.6213.85–28.43
Offsides
58%
17%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.851.874.73safe1.69–4.010.78–2.972.47–6.98safer1.39–4.310.49–3.261.88–7.57
Yellow cards
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.843.76safe0.88–2.970.71–2.971.59–5.94safer0.61–3.240.42–3.261.03–6.50
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.823.526.34safe1.39–4.261.96–5.083.35–9.34safer1.00–4.651.54–5.502.54–10.15
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.78 0.81–2.75 0.56–3.00 | 1.09 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.17 | 2.86 1.04–4.69 0.56–5.17 | 54% 23% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.31 3.45–7.18 2.96–7.67 | 4.09 2.35–5.83 1.88–6.30 | 9.40 5.80–13.01 4.84–13.96 | 59% 29% |
| Total shots | 14.55 10.62–18.47 9.53–19.56 | 11.22 7.66–14.78 6.70–15.74 | 25.77 18.28–33.26 16.23–35.31 | 71% 22% |
| Shots in box | 10.91 7.97–13.85 7.14–14.68 | 7.02 4.34–9.70 3.61–10.44 | 17.93 12.31–23.56 10.74–25.12 | 79% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.15 2.27–6.03 1.72–6.57 | 3.09 1.43–4.74 0.94–5.23 | 7.24 3.70–10.77 2.67–11.81 | 58% 14% 28% |
| Corners | 6.27 4.06–8.49 3.49–9.06 | 4.09 2.09–6.09 1.56–6.63 | 10.37 6.16–14.58 5.05–15.69 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 49.88 43.09–56.67 41.42–58.34 | 50.29 43.51–57.08 41.84–58.75 | — | 47% 49% |
| Passes | 487 420–555 402–573 | 490 424–557 406–574 | 978 844–1111 808–1147 | 49% 51% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.01 69.98–78.04 68.69–79.33 | 74.65 70.33–78.97 69.02–80.28 | — | 44% 51% |
| Fouls | 11.21 8.37–14.05 7.62–14.81 | 9.93 6.98–12.87 6.23–13.62 | 21.14 15.36–26.92 13.85–28.43 | 57% 35% |
| Offsides | 2.85 1.69–4.01 1.39–4.31 | 1.87 0.78–2.97 0.49–3.26 | 4.73 2.47–6.98 1.88–7.57 | 58% 17% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.88–2.97 0.61–3.24 | 1.84 0.71–2.97 0.42–3.26 | 3.76 1.59–5.94 1.03–6.50 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.82 1.39–4.26 1.00–4.65 | 3.52 1.96–5.08 1.54–5.50 | 6.34 3.35–9.34 2.54–10.15 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+