UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Simone Sozza · Italy
Goals
66%
19%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.180.923.11safe1.22–3.150.06–1.781.28–4.93safer0.96–3.410.00–2.030.78–5.44actual3.002.005.00
Shots on target
84%
homeawaytotalprediction6.613.039.64safe4.76–8.471.32–4.736.08–13.20safer4.26–8.970.85–5.205.11–14.17actual6.006.0012.00
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction18.328.4226.74safe14.61–22.025.04–11.8019.65–33.82safer13.58–23.054.11–12.7317.69–35.78actual18.0013.0031.00
Shots in box
93%
homeawaytotalprediction12.115.5917.70safe9.60–14.633.29–7.8912.89–22.52safer8.73–15.492.49–8.6911.22–24.18actual12.009.0021.00
Blocked shots
72%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction4.542.487.02safe2.95–6.121.06–3.894.02–10.01safer2.42–6.660.58–4.383.00–11.03actual7.003.0010.00
Corners
87%
homeawaytotalprediction7.183.1410.33safe4.98–9.391.16–5.126.14–14.51safer4.38–9.990.63–5.665.01–15.64actual9.007.0016.00
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.2944.89safe48.97–61.6038.57–51.21safer47.37–63.2036.97–52.81actual52.0048.00
Passes
65%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction505458963safe439–570394–523833–1093safer422–588376–541798–1128actual514481995
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction85.8483.54safe81.62–90.0579.03–88.04safer80.32–91.3677.70–89.37actual90.0086.00
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7210.6821.40safe7.87–13.587.74–13.6315.60–27.21safer6.98–14.466.82–14.5413.80–29.01actual15.0010.0025.00
Offsides
43%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.091.934.02safe0.88–3.300.77–3.091.65–6.39safer0.54–3.650.43–3.420.97–7.07actual1.003.004.00
Yellow cards
26%
20%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.602.353.95safe0.54–2.661.23–3.471.77–6.12safer0.27–2.930.94–3.761.21–6.69actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.120.18safe0.00–0.210.00–0.310.00–0.52safer0.00–0.360.00–0.460.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
26%
16%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.443.445.87safe1.02–3.851.88–4.992.91–8.84safer0.63–4.241.45–5.422.09–9.66actual5.004.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.18 1.22–3.15 0.96–3.41 | 3.00 | 0.92 0.06–1.78 0.00–2.03 | 2.00 | 3.11 1.28–4.93 0.78–5.44 | 5.00 | 66% 19% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.61 4.76–8.47 4.26–8.97 | 6.00 | 3.03 1.32–4.73 0.85–5.20 | 6.00 | 9.64 6.08–13.20 5.11–14.17 | 12.00 | 84% |
| Total shots | 18.32 14.61–22.02 13.58–23.05 | 18.00 | 8.42 5.04–11.80 4.11–12.73 | 13.00 | 26.74 19.65–33.82 17.69–35.78 | 31.00 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 12.11 9.60–14.63 8.73–15.49 | 12.00 | 5.59 3.29–7.89 2.49–8.69 | 9.00 | 17.70 12.89–22.52 11.22–24.18 | 21.00 | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 4.54 2.95–6.12 2.42–6.66 | 7.00 | 2.48 1.06–3.89 0.58–4.38 | 3.00 | 7.02 4.02–10.01 3.00–11.03 | 10.00 | 72% 16% |
| Corners | 7.18 4.98–9.39 4.38–9.99 | 9.00 | 3.14 1.16–5.12 0.63–5.66 | 7.00 | 10.33 6.14–14.51 5.01–15.64 | 16.00 | 87% |
| Possession % | 55.29 48.97–61.60 47.37–63.20 | 52.00 | 44.89 38.57–51.21 36.97–52.81 | 48.00 | — | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 505 439–570 422–588 | 514 | 458 394–523 376–541 | 481 | 963 833–1093 798–1128 | 995 | 65% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.84 81.62–90.05 80.32–91.36 | 90.00 | 83.54 79.03–88.04 77.70–89.37 | 86.00 | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 10.72 7.87–13.58 6.98–14.46 | 15.00 | 10.68 7.74–13.63 6.82–14.54 | 10.00 | 21.40 15.60–27.21 13.80–29.01 | 25.00 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 2.09 0.88–3.30 0.54–3.65 | 1.00 | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.43–3.42 | 3.00 | 4.02 1.65–6.39 0.97–7.07 | 4.00 | 43% 21% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.54–2.66 0.27–2.93 | 1.00 | 2.35 1.23–3.47 0.94–3.76 | 3.00 | 3.95 1.77–6.12 1.21–6.69 | 4.00 | 26% 20% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.44 1.02–3.85 0.63–4.24 | 5.00 | 3.44 1.88–4.99 1.45–5.42 | 4.00 | 5.87 2.91–8.84 2.09–9.66 | 9.00 | 26% 16% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.