UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 8·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
22%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.173.05safe0.92–2.850.31–2.021.23–4.88safer0.67–3.110.08–2.250.75–5.35
Shots on target
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.573.829.39safe3.71–7.432.08–5.565.79–13.00safer3.22–7.921.61–6.034.83–13.95
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction15.8310.6026.43safe11.90–19.757.04–14.1618.94–33.92safer10.81–20.846.08–15.1216.89–35.97
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.577.0817.65safe7.63–13.514.40–9.7612.02–23.27safer6.80–14.343.66–10.4910.46–24.84
Blocked shots
65%
13%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.222.696.91safe2.33–6.101.04–4.353.37–10.44safer1.79–6.640.55–4.842.34–11.48
Corners
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.123.609.72safe3.91–8.341.60–5.605.51–13.93safer3.34–8.911.06–6.134.40–15.04
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction53.4147.51safe46.62–60.2040.73–54.30safer44.95–61.8739.06–55.97
Passes
69%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction476418894safe409–544352–484761–1028safer391–562334–502725–1064
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction75.9376.43safe71.90–79.9672.11–80.75safer70.61–81.2570.80–82.06
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9512.0324.98safe10.12–15.799.08–14.9719.20–30.76safer9.36–16.558.33–15.7217.69–32.27
Offsides
28%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.662.263.93safe0.50–2.821.17–3.361.67–6.18safer0.20–3.120.88–3.651.08–6.77
Yellow cards
41%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.162.104.25safe1.11–3.200.97–3.232.08–6.43safer0.84–3.470.68–3.521.52–6.99
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.130.20safe0.00–0.230.00–0.320.00–0.55safer0.00–0.380.00–0.450.00–0.83
GK saves
32%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.563.195.75safe1.12–3.991.63–4.742.75–8.74safer0.73–4.381.21–5.171.94–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.89 0.92–2.85 0.67–3.11 | 1.17 0.31–2.02 0.08–2.25 | 3.05 1.23–4.88 0.75–5.35 | 54% 22% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.57 3.71–7.43 3.22–7.92 | 3.82 2.08–5.56 1.61–6.03 | 9.39 5.79–13.00 4.83–13.95 | 66% 23% |
| Total shots | 15.83 11.90–19.75 10.81–20.84 | 10.60 7.04–14.16 6.08–15.12 | 26.43 18.94–33.92 16.89–35.97 | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 10.57 7.63–13.51 6.80–14.34 | 7.08 4.40–9.76 3.66–10.49 | 17.65 12.02–23.27 10.46–24.84 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.22 2.33–6.10 1.79–6.64 | 2.69 1.04–4.35 0.55–4.84 | 6.91 3.37–10.44 2.34–11.48 | 65% 13% 22% |
| Corners | 6.12 3.91–8.34 3.34–8.91 | 3.60 1.60–5.60 1.06–6.13 | 9.72 5.51–13.93 4.40–15.04 | 74% 16% |
| Possession % | 53.41 46.62–60.20 44.95–61.87 | 47.51 40.73–54.30 39.06–55.97 | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 476 409–544 391–562 | 418 352–484 334–502 | 894 761–1028 725–1064 | 69% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.93 71.90–79.96 70.61–81.25 | 76.43 72.11–80.75 70.80–82.06 | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 12.95 10.12–15.79 9.36–16.55 | 12.03 9.08–14.97 8.33–15.72 | 24.98 19.20–30.76 17.69–32.27 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 2.26 1.17–3.36 0.88–3.65 | 3.93 1.67–6.18 1.08–6.77 | 28% 20% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 2.16 1.11–3.20 0.84–3.47 | 2.10 0.97–3.23 0.68–3.52 | 4.25 2.08–6.43 1.52–6.99 | 41% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.56 1.12–3.99 0.73–4.38 | 3.19 1.63–4.74 1.21–5.17 | 5.75 2.75–8.74 1.94–9.55 | 32% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.