UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Szymon Marciniak · Poland
Goals
33%
25%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.492.78safe0.33–2.250.63–2.350.96–4.60safer0.07–2.510.38–2.590.45–5.11actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
35%
13%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.044.708.74safe2.18–5.902.99–6.415.18–12.30safer1.69–6.402.52–6.884.21–13.27actual0.0010.0010.00
Total shots
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0213.1725.19safe8.31–15.729.79–16.5518.11–32.27safer7.28–16.758.86–17.4816.15–34.23actual5.0020.0025.00
Shots in box
37%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction7.758.6116.36safe5.23–10.266.31–10.9111.54–21.17safer4.37–11.135.51–11.719.88–22.84actual3.0013.0016.00
Blocked shots
31%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.923.686.60safe1.34–4.512.26–5.093.60–9.60safer0.80–5.041.77–5.582.58–10.62actual1.004.005.00
Corners
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.175.239.40safe1.97–6.383.25–7.215.22–13.59safer1.37–6.972.72–7.754.09–14.72actual2.005.007.00
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction41.0758.80safe34.75–47.3852.48–65.12safer33.15–48.9850.88–66.71actual36.0064.00
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction369581950safe304–434516–645820–1080safer286–452499–663785–1115actual353635988
Pass accuracy %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction81.2387.72safe77.01–85.4483.22–92.23safer75.71–86.7481.88–93.56actual81.0093.00
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1510.9023.05safe9.29–15.017.96–13.8517.25–28.85safer8.41–15.897.04–14.7615.44–30.66actual10.0017.0027.00
Offsides
63%
19%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.411.263.67safe1.20–3.620.10–2.421.30–6.04safer0.85–3.960.00–2.760.62–6.72actual7.001.008.00
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.992.064.05safe0.94–3.050.94–3.181.88–6.23safer0.66–3.320.65–3.471.32–6.79actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
51%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.312.746.05safe1.90–4.731.19–4.293.08–9.02safer1.51–5.110.75–4.732.26–9.84actual8.000.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.33–2.25 0.07–2.51 | 0.00 | 1.49 0.63–2.35 0.38–2.59 | 2.00 | 2.78 0.96–4.60 0.45–5.11 | 2.00 | 33% 25% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.04 2.18–5.90 1.69–6.40 | 0.00 | 4.70 2.99–6.41 2.52–6.88 | 10.00 | 8.74 5.18–12.30 4.21–13.27 | 10.00 | 35% 13% 52% |
| Total shots | 12.02 8.31–15.72 7.28–16.75 | 5.00 | 13.17 9.79–16.55 8.86–17.48 | 20.00 | 25.19 18.11–32.27 16.15–34.23 | 25.00 | 37% 55% |
| Shots in box | 7.75 5.23–10.26 4.37–11.13 | 3.00 | 8.61 6.31–10.91 5.51–11.71 | 13.00 | 16.36 11.54–21.17 9.88–22.84 | 16.00 | 37% 54% |
| Blocked shots | 2.92 1.34–4.51 0.80–5.04 | 1.00 | 3.68 2.26–5.09 1.77–5.58 | 4.00 | 6.60 3.60–9.60 2.58–10.62 | 5.00 | 31% 15% 54% |
| Corners | 4.17 1.97–6.38 1.37–6.97 | 2.00 | 5.23 3.25–7.21 2.72–7.75 | 5.00 | 9.40 5.22–13.59 4.09–14.72 | 7.00 | 30% 57% |
| Possession % | 41.07 34.75–47.38 33.15–48.98 | 36.00 | 58.80 52.48–65.12 50.88–66.71 | 64.00 | — | — | 85% |
| Passes | 369 304–434 286–452 | 353 | 581 516–645 499–663 | 635 | 950 820–1080 785–1115 | 988 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.23 77.01–85.44 75.71–86.74 | 81.00 | 87.72 83.22–92.23 81.88–93.56 | 93.00 | — | — | 19% 77% |
| Fouls | 12.15 9.29–15.01 8.41–15.89 | 10.00 | 10.90 7.96–13.85 7.04–14.76 | 17.00 | 23.05 17.25–28.85 15.44–30.66 | 27.00 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 2.41 1.20–3.62 0.85–3.96 | 7.00 | 1.26 0.10–2.42 0.00–2.76 | 1.00 | 3.67 1.30–6.04 0.62–6.72 | 8.00 | 63% 19% 19% |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 0.94–3.05 0.66–3.32 | 1.00 | 2.06 0.94–3.18 0.65–3.47 | 3.00 | 4.05 1.88–6.23 1.32–6.79 | 4.00 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.31 1.90–4.73 1.51–5.11 | 8.00 | 2.74 1.19–4.29 0.75–4.73 | 0.00 | 6.05 3.08–9.02 2.26–9.84 | 8.00 | 51% 16% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.