UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.342.88safe0.57–2.510.48–2.191.06–4.70safer0.32–2.760.25–2.420.58–5.18
Shots on target
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.714.469.16safe2.84–6.572.71–6.205.56–12.77safer2.35–7.062.25–6.674.60–13.72
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7712.1026.86safe10.84–18.698.53–15.6619.37–34.35safer9.75–19.787.57–16.6217.32–36.40
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction10.217.5317.73safe7.26–13.154.85–10.2112.11–23.36safer6.43–13.984.11–10.9410.54–24.92
Blocked shots
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.124.258.37safe2.24–6.002.59–5.904.83–11.90safer1.69–6.552.10–6.393.80–12.94
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.374.199.56safe3.16–7.592.19–6.195.35–13.77safer2.59–8.161.65–6.724.24–14.88
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction46.4255.34safe39.63–53.2148.56–62.13safer37.96–54.8846.89–63.80
Passes
22%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction394488882safe327–461421–554748–1015safer309–480404–572712–1051
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction67.4576.78safe63.42–71.4872.45–81.10safer62.12–72.7771.14–82.41
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2212.8524.07safe8.38–14.069.91–15.8018.29–29.86safer7.63–14.819.16–16.5516.79–31.36
Offsides
47%
25%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.192.79safe0.44–2.760.09–2.280.54–5.04safer0.14–3.070.00–2.570.00–5.63
Yellow cards
35%
19%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.394.47safe1.04–3.141.26–3.522.30–6.65safer0.77–3.400.97–3.811.74–7.21
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.993.136.12safe1.56–4.431.57–4.683.13–9.11safer1.17–4.821.15–5.112.31–9.92
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.54 0.57–2.51 0.32–2.76 | 1.34 0.48–2.19 0.25–2.42 | 2.88 1.06–4.70 0.58–5.18 | 42% 25% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.71 2.84–6.57 2.35–7.06 | 4.46 2.71–6.20 2.25–6.67 | 9.16 5.56–12.77 4.60–13.72 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Total shots | 14.77 10.84–18.69 9.75–19.78 | 12.10 8.53–15.66 7.57–16.62 | 26.86 19.37–34.35 17.32–36.40 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 10.21 7.26–13.15 6.43–13.98 | 7.53 4.85–10.21 4.11–10.94 | 17.73 12.11–23.36 10.54–24.92 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 4.12 2.24–6.00 1.69–6.55 | 4.25 2.59–5.90 2.10–6.39 | 8.37 4.83–11.90 3.80–12.94 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Corners | 5.37 3.16–7.59 2.59–8.16 | 4.19 2.19–6.19 1.65–6.72 | 9.56 5.35–13.77 4.24–14.88 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 46.42 39.63–53.21 37.96–54.88 | 55.34 48.56–62.13 46.89–63.80 | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 394 327–461 309–480 | 488 421–554 404–572 | 882 748–1015 712–1051 | 22% 78% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.45 63.42–71.48 62.12–72.77 | 76.78 72.45–81.10 71.14–82.41 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 11.22 8.38–14.06 7.63–14.81 | 12.85 9.91–15.80 9.16–16.55 | 24.07 18.29–29.86 16.79–31.36 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.14–3.07 | 1.19 0.09–2.28 0.00–2.57 | 2.79 0.54–5.04 0.00–5.63 | 47% 25% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.04–3.14 0.77–3.40 | 2.39 1.26–3.52 0.97–3.81 | 4.47 2.30–6.65 1.74–7.21 | 35% 19% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.99 1.56–4.43 1.17–4.82 | 3.13 1.57–4.68 1.15–5.11 | 6.12 3.13–9.11 2.31–9.92 | 40% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.